The New York Yankees (17-16) continue a 3-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays (27-6) Saturday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 1-0
The Yankees suffered a 5-4 loss to the Rays in Friday’s series opener. New York fell behind 4-0 but tied it in the top of the 6th with a 4-run inning. However, the Rays scored the eventual winning run in the bottom of the 7th on SS Wander Franco’s RBI double.
The Yankees have dropped 6 of their past 8 games on the road, while going 1-5 in the past 6 road outings against a right-handed starting pitcher.
The Rays have won 8 of the past 10 in Game 2 of a series, while going 6-2 in the past 8 games inside the AL East Division.
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Yankees at Rays projected starters
RHP Domingo German vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen
German (2-2, 4.46 ERA) makes his 7th start of the season. He has a 0.90 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 34 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 8 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 3-2 home loss to Cleveland Guardians Monday, his 1st quality start (QS) in 3 outings
- 2023 road splits: 1-0, 7.00 ERA (9 IP, 7 ER), .212 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts
- 2022 vs. Rays: 0-1, 3.65 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 5 ER), .234 OBA, 8 K in 3 starts
Rasmussen (3-2, 3.66 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, 9.6 K/9 in 32 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 12-9 loss at Chicago White Sox Sunday
- 2023 home splits: 1-1, 3.86 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 5 ER), .222 OBA in 2 starts
- 2022 vs. Yankees: Win, 1 start, 6 scoreless innings, 6 H, 0 BB, 10 K of 4-2 victory in the Bronx Sept. 9
Yankees at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Rays -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-130) | Rays -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Yankees at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Yankees 2
Moneyline
Tampa Bay (-190) is a little on the expensive side, costing nearly 2 times the potential return. For a standalone wager, or even in a multi-team parlay, playing such a heavy favorite drains all the value out of a ticket.
PASS, and look to the run line instead.
Run line/Against the spread
TAMPA BAY -1.5 (+105) offers better value than backing the heavy moneyline, although I expect it to be close like Friday’s opener.
The Yankees are 14-7 in the past 21 games inside the division, but they are 0-5 in the past 5 against winning teams and 1-6 in the past 7 on the road against a right-handed starter. Until New York turns some of those numbers around, keeping fading the Yankees.
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Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-110) is the lean as a pitching matchup between German and Rasmussen should mean plenty of donuts on the scoreboard.
The Under is 5-1-1 in the past 7 games against a right-handed starting pitcher for the Yankees, while going 22-8-1 in the past 31 against winning teams.
The Under is also 5-1 in the past 6 games at home for the Rays, while cashing at a 5-1 clip in the past 6 at home vs. a right-hander.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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