New York Yankees at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Yankees at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees (36-17) and San Diego Padres (27-27) play the middle contest a 3-game interleague series Saturday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Yankees lead 1-0

The Yankees routed the Padres 8-0 in the series opener behind LHP Carlos Rodon Friday night, getting to the previously white-hot RHP Yu Darvish early and often.

Former Padres OF Juan Soto collected 2 hits, including a double and a home run, while driving in 2 runs. Rodon twirled 6 scoreless innings and scattered 3 hits with 3 walks to improve to 5-2 while lowering his ERA to 2.95.

Darvish entered with a career-high 25 scoreless innings across his previous 4-plus starts, but he was touched up for 7 ER and 9 hits in 5 2/3 innings.

Friday marked the 12th time this season that a San Diego starting pitcher has allowed 5 or more runs in a game, and it was the 8th time the team has been down by 4 or more runs in the first 3 frames.

Yankees at Padres projected starters

RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Dylan Cease

Stroman (3-2, 3.05 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 56 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, solo HR, 1 BB, 6 K in 5-4 home loss vs. Seattle Mariners Monday
  • 2024 road splits: 2-0, 2.53 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.41 WHIP, .225 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 12 K across 4 starts

Cease (5-3, 3.05 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 59 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K in 6-5 road win vs. Atlanta Braves Monday
  • 2024 home splits: 1-3, 4.03 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.03 WHIP, .185 OBA, 26 K in 4 starts

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Yankees at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:59 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Yankees +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Padres -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-225) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -130 | U: +100)

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Yankees at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 6, Padres 2

Moneyline

The YANKEES (+100) are a solid play at even-money behind Stroman.

The Padres (-120) have struggled in their home park, going 17-11 on the road and just 10-16 at home. San Diego’s pitching staff has an awful 4.64 ERA at Petco Park, and it is on pace to be the worst home ERA in club history.

New York routed San Diego in the opener, the pitching staff hasn’t allowed a run in the past 2 games, and the Padres are awful at home. Back the visitors.

Run line/Against the spread

The Yankees +1.5 (-225) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s a silly amount of risk for such a small return.

PASS, and just bet New York straight up if you like it.

Over/Under

OVER 7 (-130) is a strong play at Petco Park.

The Yankees have cashed high in 5 of the past 6 games, with the offense going for 4 or more runs in 11 of the past 12 outings.

The general concern is the Padres, as they have struggled at home. Of course, they allow a ton of runs at home, too. Go lightly.

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