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The New York Yankees (66-69) and the Houston Astros (77-59) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Saturday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Yankees lead 3-2
The Yankees rolled up a 6-2 victory in the series opener Friday night behind LHP Carlos Rodon, cashing as a moderate underdog (+155) as the total (8) pushed at most shops. New York has come alive with 4 wins in the past 5 games overall, including 3 victories as an underdog.
The Astros remain tied atop the American League West division with the Seattle Mariners despite Friday’s setback. It was Houston’s first loss in 6 tries. The Astros are just 35-32 at home, while posting a plus-99 run differential overall.
Yankees at Astros projected starters
RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Hunter Brown
Severino (4-8, 6.64 ERA) makes his 17th start and 18th overall appearance. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 81 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 8 K in a 4-1 road win vs. the Detroit Tigers Monday
- 2023 road splits: 1-6, 8.06 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 40 ER), 11 HR, 1.93 WHIP, .340 opponent batting average (OBA) in 9 starts and 1 relief appearance
- 2023 vs. Houston: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 5 H (2 HR), 3 BB, 4 K at Yankee Stadium Aug. 4
Brown (10-9, 4.47 ERA) makes his 25th start and 26th overall appearance. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 133 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 9-2 road win vs. the Detroit Tigers last Saturday
- 2023 home splits: 3-5, 5.47 ERA (51 IP, 31 ER), 4 HR, 1.57 WHIP, .285 OBA in 10 starts
- 2023 vs. N.Y. Yankees: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (2 solo HR), 1 BB, 4 K at Yankee Stadium Aug. 4
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Yankees at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Astros -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-125) | Astros -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Yankees at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 7, Yankees 4
The Astros (-185) are a little too expensive for my liking, costing you nearly 2 times your potential return. That’s risky, especially with Friday’s game serving as a cautionary tale why never to bet heavy favorites.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The ASTROS -1.5 (+105) are a much better value at plus-money on the run line.
While Houston failed to cover in the series opener, losing outright Friday, the Astros are 3-1 on the run line as a favorite in the previous 4 outings overall. Brown already outpitched Severino at The Stadium in early August, and now he’ll do the same at MMP.
Over/Under
OVER 9 (+100) is a solid play at even-money.
Severino has been extremely giving overall this season, but especially so on the road. And Brown has also been rather mediocre at home, so New York should chip in on pushing the total across the finish line for Over bettors, too.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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