The New York Yankees (59-23) head to Fenway Park Thursday to start a 4-game series with the Boston Red Sox (45-37) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
N.Y. split an interleague back-to-back at the Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday-Wednesday, but the Yankees are 7-3 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.
Boston lost Wednesday’s rubber match of a 3-game home set with the Tampa Bay Rays 7-1 and the Red Sox are just 4-6 SU in the last 10.
The Yankees beat the Red Sox 2-1 in their first 3-game set of 2022 and N.Y. outscored Boston 13-11 in that series.
Yankees at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Josh Winckowski
Cole is 7-2 with a 2.99 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 93 1/3 IP over 16 starts.
- Last start: Won 13-4 Saturday at the Cleveland Guardians with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 6 K.
- 2022 vs. the Red Sox: One start, a no-decision in N.Y.’s 6-5 home win April 8 with 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 3 K.
Winckowski is 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 26 IP over 5 starts.
- Last start: Lost 3-1 Saturday at the Chicago Cubs with 6 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 6 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
- 2022 home splits: 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 17 H, 1 HR, 5 BB and 9 K in 3 starts.
Yankees at Red Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:16 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Yankees -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Red Sox +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (-105) | Red Sox +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Yankees at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 4, Red Sox 2
Money line
LEAN YANKEES (-175) and I wouldn’t wager more than a half-unit on N.Y. since Cole has struggled at Fenway Park throughout his career and there’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed toward the Red Sox (+140) in the betting market, according to Pregame.com.
However, the Yankees have a 3-phase edge in starting and relief pitching and hitting over everyone in MLB including the Red Sox.
Also, N.Y. is 14-6 SU as road favorites vs. right-handed starters with a plus-11.1% return on investment (ROI) and an average final score of 5.15-2.80. Boston is 2-3 SU as home underdogs vs. righty starters with a minus-14.4% ROI and an average deficit of minus-1.40 (3.60-2.20).
I’d go light with N.Y.’s ML based on the aforementioned reasons, but if your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” $50 on the YANKEES (-175) to earn a $28.57 profit.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Cole is just 1-3 SU at Fenway for with a 5.06 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 7 HRs allowed in 6 career starts and the Yankees -1.5 (-105) are just 17-17 RL as road favorites.
Over/Under
BET 0.75 units on the UNDER 8.5 (+110).
There’s also RLM headed south of the total since more than 85% of the action is on the Over 8.5 (-135) per Pregame.com. But, the Yankees-Red Sox opened with a 9-run total and has been lowered to the current number, which suggests oddsmakers are laying a trap with the total.
Lastly, N.Y. is 7-11-2 O/U as road favorites vs. righty starters with a plus-17.3% ROI toward the Under, Boston is 1-4 O/U as home underdogs vs. righty starters and Yankees-Red Sox is 2-6 O/U in their last 8 meetings at Fenway Park.
For what it’s worth, the UNDER 8.5 (+110) is my favorite look in this game.
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