The New York Yankees (51-46) and Boston Red Sox (60-39) conclude their four-game series Sunday at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston won the first two games of this series but New York rallied back from a 3-run deficit by scoring 4 runs in the top of the 8th inning to win Saturday, 4-3.
Season series: Red Sox lead 9-3.
RHP Domingo German is New York’s projected starter. German is 4-5 with a 4.71 ERA (86 IP, 45 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 over 16 starts and three relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 5 K in New York’s 6-4 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday.
- German is 0-1 this year against Boston with a 3.38 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 9 H, 3 BB and 6 K across two starts and one bullpen outing.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 3.70 FIP with a .225 batting average (BA), .295 wOBA, .428 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 23.8 K% and 92.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 80 plate appearances (PA).
LHP Martin Perez takes the hill for the Red Sox. Perez is 7-6 with a 4.16 ERA (88 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 across 19 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 9-1, with 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K at the Yankees last Sunday.
- Perez is 0-1 against New York this season with a 3.52 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 11 H, 3 BB and 8 K in two starts.
- vs. Yankees on the current roster: 6.07 FIP with a .288 BA, .384 wOBA, .418 xSLG, 20.9 K% and 92.6 mph EV in 86 PA.
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Yankees at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:27 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Red Sox -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Yankees +1.5 (-150) | Red Sox -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Yankees 7, Red Sox 5
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the YANKEES (+120) for a half unit because New York has the edge in the pitching department for this meeting.
First of all, Fenway Park has been unfriendly towards lefties historically and Perez has been much more effective on the road compared to at home.
For instance, Perez is 3-4 this season at home with a 5.80 ERA (2.47 road ERA), 1.80 WHIP (1.15 road WHIP) and 2.0 K/BB at home (3.5 K/BB on the road).
Despite recent choke jobs by New York’s bullpen its relievers still grade out as a top-tier group. The Yankees bullpen ranks in the top 5 of the majors in SIERA, xFIP, K-BB% and WAR.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because German also struggles at Fenway Park so I’m not going to take a shot with the Yankees +0.5 (-115) First 5 Innings run line.
Also, New York has the league’s second-worst cover rate vs. divisional foes this season (17-30 ATS), which in turn makes the Yankees +1.5 (-150) too expensive.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 6 (-120) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because both starters get raked in Fenway but both bullpens are fantastic.
German’s 6.00 ERA in Fenway is even worse than Perez’s and the weather forecast predicts nearly 14 mph winds blowing out to left-centerfield.
However, this is a fairly obvious play since the full game total has been steamed from the 9.5-run opening total to the current number of 10.5 and typically it’s more profitable to take a contrarian approach on sports betting.
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