The New York Yankees (40-35) and Boston Red Sox (45-31) continue their three-game set at Fenway Park Saturday with a 7:15 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston won the first game of the series Friday 5-3, as its bullpen pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing just 3 hits and striking out 7 with 1 walk.
Season series: Red Sox lead 4-0.
LHP Jordan Montgomery makes his 15th start for the Yankees. Montgomery is 3-1 with a 4.03 ERA (76 IP, 34 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 6 K in New York’s 2-1 win against the Oakland Athletics Sunday.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 59 at-bats with a .288/.344/.508 slash line, 13/4 K/BB, 4 HR and 8 RBIs.
- Career at Fenway Park: 0-0 with a 6.59 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.61 WHIP and 1.9 K/BB rate over three starts.
RHP Nathan Eovaldi is on the rubber for the Red Sox. Eovaldi is 7-4 with a 3.90 ERA (83 IP, 36 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 over 15 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 7-3, with 4 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 4 K Sunday at the Kansas City Royals.
- Eovaldi picked up a win June 4 at New York with a stat line of 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 7 K in Boston’s 5-2 victory.
- vs. Yankees on the current roster: 153 at-bats with a .275/.296/.412 slash line, 29/5 K/BB, 4 HR and 14 RBIs.
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Yankees at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Red Sox -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Red Sox +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Yankees 6, Red Sox 3
Money line (ML)
GIMME the YANKEES (-105) for 1 unit because New York’s lineup has been producing closer to expectations this month and Boston’s lineup is less productive vs. left-handed pitching.
Yankees hitters are fifth in WAR, wRC+ and wOBA in June, while the Red Sox batters are 19th and 20th in each of those categories.
Furthermore, while Boston’s lineup is still 10th in wRC+ and wOBA when facing left-handed pitching it’s more productive against righties and just 13-11 vs. lefty starters.
Also, Eovaldi’s basic stats and 3.36 FIP against this current Yankees lineup trump those of Montgomery vs. active Red Sox hitters whose FIP against Boston is more than two runs higher.
However, Montgomery’s expected opponent’s wOBA, expected slugging percentage and strikeout rate against current Red Sox batters are all better than Eovladi’s vs. the Yankees, while his exit velocity is nearly 10 mph better than Eovaldi’s.
Aside from Gerrit Cole, Montgomery has been New York’s most reliable starter this season and there have been four Yankees’ losing skids this year snapped during Montgomery starts.
The YANKEES (-105) desperately need Montgomery to be sharp if New York is going to break a four-game losing streak to the Red Sox to keep pace in the AL East race.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because I don’t like New York enough in this spot to lay it with Yankees -1.5 (+145) and would rather put a half unit on the total than sprinkle on the run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 10 (-115) for a half unit as a “contrarian play” on a market that is barreling into the Over.
Also, the Yankees have played more to the Under in road games, the Red Sox have played more to the Under in Boston and these teams have a combined 12-15-2 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.
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