The New York Yankees (60-58) and Atlanta Braves (75-42) meet Monday to open a 3-game series. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting since the Yankees took 3 of 4 games in 2021
The Yankees have lost 58 games this season and perhaps the worst of those was on Sunday at the Miami Marlins when New York lost 8-7 despite having a 7-1 lead through 7-and-a-half innings.
The Braves failed to close out a 4-game sweep when they lost to the New York Mets 7-6 Sunday night. That game capped off a 6-5 road trip as Atlanta returns to its home yard for the first time since Aug. 2. The club is 6-1 over its last 7 at home, and only the Texas Rangers (40-20) and Los Angeles Dodgers (38-20) have better overall home records than the Braves.
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Yankees at Braves projected starters
RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. LHP Max Fried
Schmidt (8-6, 4.23 ERA) makes his 24th start and 25th appearance. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 115 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 5-1 road win vs. Chicago White Sox Tuesday
- 2023 road stats: 5-1, 4.56 ERA in 49 1/3 IP across 10 starts
- Has never faced the Braves
- Owns a 3.67 ERA over his last 5 starts, but that figure is buoyed by a .230 batting average on balls in play (BABIP)
Fried (3-1, 2.50 ERA) is tabbed for his 8th start this season. He owns a 1.06 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 36 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 6-5 road win at Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday
- At home: 12 2/3 IP this season; 15-8 with a 2.70 ERA since 2021
- One career start vs. Yankees: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K
- Making his 3rd start off a long stay on the IL (forearm)
Yankees at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:56 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Yankees +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Braves -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Yankees at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Yankees 5
Moneyline
Plenty of juice in which to drown: PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
With a high total Over lean, the Atlanta -1.5 (-115) play is the lean here, but there is enough pushback from a Yankee offensive resurgence. New York has a .786 OPS over its last 11 games and it is a plus for New York when facing port-siders, while Fried is less-than-full strength to make that Braves return a tad short.
AVOID.
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Over/Under
Hot and humid temperatures and a higher-elevation-than-you-think Atlanta ballpark are factors here. Braves home games have hit the Over 33 times in the last 54 games (+11.05 Units, 19% ROI).
Figure the Yankees offense as being a tad undervalued by its surface numbers, and New York is swung around to the best side of its platoon numbers when facing left-handers (.778 OPS).
Recent Schmidt results may have some bettors overvaluing his effect on this total, and Fried is not at full capacity regarding his endurance. There is also some fade to the New York bullpen, a unit that has benefited from a .267 BABIP this season.
The weather forecast calls for hot and humid, breeze-blowing-out conditions.
Check out the FanDuel Sportsbook price as the best offering here. BACK THE OVER 9 (-112).
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