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The Tampa Bay Rays (14-18) welcome the New York Mets (16-15) to Tropicana Field for the 1st game of a 3-game series Friday. First pitch is set for 6:50 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Mets won 2-1 last season
The Rays lost to the Milwaukee Brewers 7-1 Wednesday, closing as -103 underdogs. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games and are 11-21 against the spread (ATS) on the season. Tampa Bay is 8-9 straight up at home.
The Mets beat the Chicago Cubs 7-6 Thursday, winning 2 of 4 in that series. They have won 3 of their last 4 road series and are 7-5 away from home. New York is 16-15 ATS on the season.
Mets at Rays projected starters
LHP Jose Quintana vs. RHP Aaron Civale
Quintana (1-2, 3.48 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 33 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 4-2 home win vs. St. Louis Cardinals Sunday
- 2024 road splits: 1-1, 5.06 ERA, 16 IP, 9 ER, 17 H (2 HR), 9 BB, 12 K in 3 starts
- Career vs. Tampa Bay: 1-4, 4.09 ERA (44 IP, 20 ER), 1.36 WHIP in 8 starts and 1 relief appearance — last faced Rays in 2021
Civale (2-2, 5.06 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 32 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 8-7 road loss vs. Chicago White Sox Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 1-1, 8.36 ERA, 14 IP, 13 ER, 20 H (2 HR), 6 BB, 12 K in 3 starts
- Career vs. New York: 0-1, 3.18 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.71 WHIP, 4 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 1 start, a 5-4 road loss April 21
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Mets at Rays odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +116 (bet $100 to win $116) | Rays -136 (bet $136 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Mets +1.5 (-196) | Rays -1.5 (+162)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -106 | U: -114)
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Mets at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Rays 3
Moneyline
BET METS (+116).
The Rays have struggled to rebound over the last few weeks. Since April 26, they have lost 5 of 6 games. Tampa Bay has lost Civale’s last 2 starts.
The Mets have the more experienced starter on the mound as well. New York has performed well on the road and won outright in 3 of its last 5 games. It has won 4 of Quintana’s last 5 starts.
Considering those trends, back METS (+116).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Mets are far too expensive as run-line underdogs, while the the Rays are too risky as run-line favorites. Ultimately, the moneyline is the better play here.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8 (-114).
The Mets are 15-16 O/U on the season, and they are 3-7 O/U in their last 10 games. New York has scored 4 or fewer runs in 6 of its last 7 games, and it has tallied 0 or 1 in 2 of its last 4.
The Rays are 18-13-1 O/U on the season but are 1-2-1 O/U in their last 4 games. They are also struggling offensively, having scored 2 or fewer runs in 4 straight games.
Given the sluggish offenses, take UNDER 8 (-114).
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