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The New York Mets (42-47) and San Diego Padres (42-47) close out a 3-game set Sunday at Petco Park. First pitch is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 3-2
The Mets had their 6-game winning streak snapped with a 3-1 loss Saturday. They were only able to muster 3 hits in the game. They are now 12-18 over the last 30 games and sit 18 1/2 games back in the NL East.
Padres lefty Blake Snell delivered one of his best starts of the year. He went 6 shutout frames, allowing 1 hit and 3 walks while fanning 11. The Friars are 5-5 and 15-15 over the last 10 and 30 games, respectively. San Diego improved to 24-23 at home.
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Mets at Padres projected starters
RHP Max Scherzer vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
Scherzer (8-2, 4.03 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 82 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 9 K vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday
- Last 5 starts vs. Padres: 3-1, 1.97 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 37 K in 32 IP
Musgrove (7-2, 3.56 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 73 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 11 K vs. Los Angeles Angels Tuesday
- Last 5 starts vs. Mets: 0-5, 6.33 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 28 K in 27 IP
Mets at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:54 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-200) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mets at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Padres 3
Moneyline
It’s unusual to see Mad Max with a 4 ERA. If the season ended today, it would be his worst ERA since 2011. He has owned the Padres, though, and been great at Petco. He’s 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 63 K’s in 41 1/3 IP in 7 starts there. Musgrove has been great, too, with a 2.09 ERA in his last 7 starts. But I’m going to take the plus-money with Scherzer
Take the METS +105.
Run line/Against the spread
The RL is too saturated to pick a side here. So I’m looking at Scherzer’s K’s. He has fanned at least 8 in 4 straight starts and 6 of 7. So I’m willing to throw down on MAX SCHERZER OVER 6.5 K’S (-140).
He has had a rough 1st half, and he’ll look to make a statement as it closes.
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Over/Under
Saturday was an old-fashioned pitcher’s duel, and I look for Sunday to be the same. The Mets are 3-6-1 O/U over the last 10, and San Diego is 6-2-2. The Over is 4-6 over the last 10 games between the teams. This total has hit just once in the last 6 meetings, and I could see it dropping to 7.5.
Before it does, take the UNDER 8 (-115).
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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