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The New York Mets (42-43) and Pittsburgh Pirates (41-45) open a 4-game series Friday. First pitch from PNC Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: New York leads 3-0
New York lost 1-0 to the Washington Nationals Thursday while failing to cover as a -107 road favorite. The Mets have dropped back-to-back games, now falling to a below .500 record on the season.
Pittsburgh was handed a 3-2 loss in 10 innings by the St. Louis Cardinals Thursday while failing to cover as a -103 home favorite. The Pirates have lost 2 of their last 3.
Mets at Pirates projected starters
RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Paul Skenes
Severino (5-2, 3.42 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 97 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K in a 10-5 loss vs. Houston Astros Sunday
- Career vs. Pittsburgh: 3-0, 0.53 ERA (17 IP, 1 ER), 11 H, 4 BB, 13 K in 3 starts
Skenes (4-0, 2.06 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 in 52 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 9 K in a 2-1 loss at Atlanta Saturday
- First career start vs. Mets for the 22-year-old rookie
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Mets at Pirates odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:47 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Pirates -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-200) | Pirates -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mets at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Pirates 3
Moneyline
LEAN METS (+105).
New York enters as the slightly hotter team, being 6-4 in its last 10 overall while Pittsburgh is 4-6 in its last 10 and only 1-3 in its last 4 at home.
The Mets have also won 4 straight vs. the Pirates and are 7-3 in the last 10 matchups.
This is only a lean because Pittsburgh is 2-1 in its last 3 meetings with New York at home and because the Mets are only 3-2 in their last 5 road games.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I expect the Mets to cover here with ease, but they are not worth the risk of betting on as +1.5 (-200) favorites. Bet on the moneyline and/or O/U instead.
Over/Under
BET OVER 7.5 (-115).
The Over has hit in 2 of Pittsburgh’s last 3 home games. For New York, the Over is 7-2-1 in its last 10 games overall. The Over has also hit in 4 of the last 5 New York-Pittsburgh matchups and is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings.
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