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The New York Mets (71-83) and Philadelphia Phillies (85-69) play game 3rd game of a 4-game series Saturday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is slated for 4:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 4-4
The Mets suffered a 2nd straight loss Friday, falling 5-4 in the 10-inning series opener. N.Y. has been outscored 27-25 by Philadelphia over their 8 head-to-head matchups. The Mets are 21-23 against the NL East this season and have been eliminated from postseason contention.
Philadelphia’s victory Friday preserved its 5-game buffer as the top NL Wild Card. The Phillies averaged 5.18 runs per game at home, the 6th-most in MLB, which has led to their 45-31 record at Citizens Bank Park.
Mets at Phillies projected starters
LHP Jose Quintana vs. RHP Zack Wheeler
Quintana (3-5, 3.02 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 65 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 8-4 home victory vs. Cincinnati Reds Sunday
- 2023 road stats: 2-3, 3.65 ERA (37 IP, 15 ER), .250 opponent batting average (OBA) in 6 games
Wheeler (12-6, 3.63 ERA) will make his 31st start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 181 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 7-1 road win vs. Atlanta Braves Monday
- 2023 vs. Mets: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 7-6 home win June 25
- 2023 home stats: 4-2, 4.25 ERA (78 1/3 IP, 37 ER), .228 OBA in 13 starts
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Mets at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:39 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Phillies -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-130) | Phillies -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Phillies 3
Moneyline
BET METS (+155).
These teams have split their 8-games and only 2 total runs separate them along those meetings. I think it’s worth a shot to put at least half a unit on the Mets to win this game at +155.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’ll stick to the moneyline with this game. I don’t want to put -150 on the Mets getting the run and a half and I’m not confident enough in the Phillies to cover this line.
Over/Under
AVOID.
After going under this total in their first 5 games against each other, these two teams have been over in their last 3 meetings. I really don’t have a good feeling either way in this matchup, so I’m going to just avoid it.
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