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The New York Mets (81-66) and Philadelphia Phillies (88-59) meet Saturday to continue a 3-game NL East series. The start time at Citizens Bank Park is slated for a 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network) 1st pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 4-2
The Mets rode a 6-run 5th frame to an eventual 11-3 victory in Friday’s series opener. New York is 3-1 on their road trip and 6-1 across its last 7 games away from home.
The Phillies had a 3-game win streak snapped in Friday’s setback. Philadelphia is 8-3 over its last 11 at home.
Mets at Phillies projected starters
RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Kolby Allard
Severino (10-6, 3.74 ERA) is making his 29th start. He owns a 1.25 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 166 IP across 28 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 3-1 loss vs. Cincinnati Sunday
- Career vs. Phillies: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (7 IP, 0 ER), 6 H, 0 BB, 9 K
- Owns a 1.95 ERA over his last 5 starts
Allard (2-0, 3.50 ERA) is making his 4th start (5th appearance). He has a 1.33 WHIP, 1.0 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 through 18 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 5 K Aug. 25 against Kansas City Royals
- Has never faced the Mets
- Was 3-9 with a 5.66 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 84 K’s in 90 2/3 IP between Double-A and Triple-A this year
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Mets at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Mets -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Phillies 4
Moneyline
Severino is in a groove and so are the Metropolitans. New York is 12-2 over its last 14 games; its pitching has cranked out a fine 2.14 over that stretch.
Allard logged a 6.75 ERA, 1.73 WHIP over his 3 most recent turns at Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
The Over is the top leverage play in this one, but METS (-110) has value.
Run line/Against the spread
The tag here, especially if you can still get a +155, makes New York a worthy play on the Run Line. Both clubs are right on the league average for frequency of 1-run games. Mostly a coin flip with the above ML action, and the play could depend on nuanced line moves either way.
PASS or take this instead of the ML.
Over/Under
Six of the last 9 Mets-Phillies games at Citizens Bank Park have hit the Over. And the Over has cashed in 5 of Philly’s last 7 games.
There is some slight fade to the Severino and Allard lines. Expected ERAs are higher. The Mets have not put up gaudy numbers in their recent surge, but they were certainly comfy at the plate Friday when they had a pair of doubles and 4 round-trippers among 11 hits.
On a warm day, look for the OVER 9 (+100).
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