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The New York Mets (80-66) and Philadelphia Phillies (88-58) meet Friday to open a 3-game NL East series. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 4-2
New York is continuing a road trip that opened with the Mets taking 2 of 3 at the Toronto Blue Jays Monday-Wednesday. Since Aug. 29, New York’s National League entry is 11-2, and that stretch includes a 6-1 mark on the road.
Philadelphia has won 3 straight games and is 14-8 over its last 18. That span includes the Phillies going 8-2 in their own yard. For the season, the Phils own a robust .667 win percentage in home games.
Mets at Phillies projected starters
LHP Jose Quintana vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Quintana (8-9, 4.09 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 152 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-0 home victory vs. Cincinnati Reds Saturday
- Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 0-2, 3.94 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 in 11 starts
- Has allowed just 1 ER over his last 18 IP after having posted 8.27 ERA over his 1st 4 starts in August
Nola (12-7, 3.41 ERA) is making his 30th start. He has authored a 1.18 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 177 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 9-5 defeat at Miami Marlins Saturday
- Career vs. Mets: 10-8, 3.21 ERA (159 2/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 in 27 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Mets at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Mets +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-155) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Mets 4
Moneyline
Philadelphia is 5-2 across the last 7 series meetings. Both New York wins in that set were by 1-run margins; 4 of Philly’s 5 wins were by 4-plus runs. The Mets are 2-6 over their last 8 games at Citizens Bank Park. The Phils have won 5 straight series openers.
The Phillies are a solid play in this Friday series opener against a starting pitcher who figures as being too far out over his skis of late. Over his last 4 starts, Quintana has benefited from a high rate of stranding batters and a low rate of fly balls leaving the yard as home runs. On Friday, he’s up against a Philadelphia nine that leads the league in OPS against southpaws (.800).
The last time Nola faced the Mets, he threw a shutout (May 14).
Both bullpens are solid, but the New York relief corps last some recent analytics that paint the picture of giving some ground.
FanDuel Sportsbook offers the leverage tag here: BACK THE PHILLIES (-158).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: Better leverage can be found on the ML.
Over/Under
Philadelphia owns an .876 OPS over its last 9 games. With the way the Phils hit lefties and with Quintana being a fade candidate, the OVER 8.5 (-110) — with that price being available at FanDuel Sportsbook — is a slight lean.
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