New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (0-0) will finally begin their 2020 campaign when they visit the Philadelphia Phillies (3-0) Monday for the opener of a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York’s opening series was postponed because of COVID-19 issues with the Washington Nationals.

Philly is coming off a three-game home sweep of the three-time defending NL East champion Atlanta Braves. The Phillies’ pitching was magnificent as they held the Braves to 3 runs in the series, winning by scores of 3-2 (10 innings), 4-0 and 2-1.

RHP Jacob deGrom is the Mets’ projected starter. The 2018 and 2019 NL Cy Young winner was 4-2 with a 2.38 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 13.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 68 IP across 12 starts last season.

  • 2020 vs. Phillies: 1-0, 4.00 ERA (9 IP, 4 ER), 13 K in 2 starts
  • Career vs. Phillies: 8-1, 2.38 ERA (102 IP, 27 ER) in 17 starts

LHP Matt Moore is projected to start for Philly. The nine-year veteran pitched in Japan last season, posting a 6-3 record with a 2.65 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 85 innings across 15 games. He last pitched in the majors in 2019 as a member of the Detroit Tigers.

  • 2020 spring training: 2-1, 4.60 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 8 ER) in 5 games (4 starts)
  • Career vs. Mets: 0-2, 6.75 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 11 ER) in 3 starts, last facing them in 2017

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Mets at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Phillies +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (-120) | Phillies +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Phillies 4, Mets 3

Money line (ML)

PHILLIES (+170) are worth a HALF-UNIT wager. It’s no secret New York ace deGrom is a stud and has owned the Phillies during his career. I lean against the Mets because they haven’t played yet. The Phils have played and won three well-pitched, close games vs. the Braves.

At +170, the Phillies offer great value.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+100) is worth a FULL-UNIT play. The Phillies bullpen was horrendous last season, ranking last in the majors with a 7.06 ERA. In the recent three-game sweep of the Braves, the bullpen didn’t allow a run in 7 1/3 innings.

Note: The Phillies are basically my STRONGEST PLAY as I’m backing them for a combined 1½ units between the ML and ATS wagers.

ATS records: Mets 0-0 | Phillies 2-1

Over/Under (O/U)

Back the UNDER 7.5 (-115) for a QUARTER-UNIT wager. The Phillies played 3 Unders in a row so far. However, I’m a bit leery because the Mets’ deGrom is surprisingly an Over pitcher. He was 8-3 O/U last season.

O/U records: Mets 0-0 | Phillies 0-3

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JOHNNY PARLAY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 1-5 0-2 -5.9625
2020 MLB 80-59-1 39-21 +24.79
2021 record (all sports) 101-90-1 49-43 +6.0875
*SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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