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The New York Mets (87-71) and the Milwaukee Brewers (92-68) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Saturday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 4-0, including a sweep of the season-opening series March 29-31
The Brewers doubled up the Mets 8-4 in Friday’s series opener to easily cash the Over (7.5). Milwaukee, the National League Central Division champ, is locked into the No. 3 seed in the postseason.
Milwaukee is 4-1 across the past 5 games, including victories in the past 2 home contests, while the Over holds a slight 3-2 edge in the 5-game span.
The Mets have dropped 2 in a row, including a key 5-1 loss in Atlanta Tuesday, and it has an identical 87-71 like the Braves with 4 games to go, and a makeup doubleheader looming in Atlanta Monday.
New York has cashed the Over at a 6-2 pace in the past 8 games, while the Mets have seen the total go high at a 9-4-1 clip in the previous 14 contests.
Mets at Brewers projected starters
LHP Jose Quintana vs. LHP Jared Koenig
Quintana (10-9, 3.74 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 166 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 10-0 home victory vs. Washington Nationals Sept. 18
- 2024 road splits: 5-4, 3.84 ERA, 82 IP, 35 ER, 72 H, 5 HR, 32 BB, 60 K, .238 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1.27 WHIP in 15 starts
- Last 7 games: 4-1, 2.63 ERA, 41 IP, 12 ER, 35 H, 15 BB, 24 K, 1.22 WHIP
- Career vs. Brewers: 9-6, 2.94 ERA, 125 2/3 IP, 41 ER, 99 H, 14 HR, 34 BB, 122 K, 1.06 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
Koenig (9-4, 2.51 ERA) makes his 6th start and 55th appearance. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 61 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 K in 3-1 home win vs. Cincinnati Reds June 15 (9 pitches)
- 2024 home splits: 5-2, 3.00 ERA, 33 IP, 11 ER, 3 HR, 12 BB, 40 K, .219 OBA, 1.21 WHIP in 1 start (28 appearances)
- Last 7 games: 1-1, 4.50 ERA, 8 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 5 BB, 6 K, 1.50 WHIP in 7 relief appearances
- Career vs. Mets: No-decision, 3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 K (56 pitches) in home relief appearance Sept. 25, 2022
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Mets at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 11:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+155) | Brewers +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Mets at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Brewers 3
Moneyline
The METS (-105) were unable to get the job done Friday, and they slipped into a tie with the Braves for the final postseason spot. New York needs to show a little more urgency after getting doubled up in the series opener.
The Brewers (-115) use the opener Koenig, and then they’ll turn it over to the bullpen. With the No. 3 seed locked in, Milwaukee won’t be grinding nearly as hard to get it done as New York will be.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The run line has swapped sides Saturday morning, and I’m not confident in a multi-run finish.
Over/Under
UNDER 8 (+100) is the lean, but go very, very lightly.
The Over is on a 6-2 run for the Mets, but the Under is 2-1 in the previous 3 outings. For the Brewers, the Under has a slight 6-4 edge in the past 10 contests. The Under is 16-13-1 in Quintana’s 30 previous starts in 2024, too.
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