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The New York Mets (87-70) and the Milwaukee Brewers (91-68) begin a 3-game series Friday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 3-0, sweeping season-opening series March 29-31
The Mets will be glad to be indoors after managing to play just 1 of 3 games in soggy Atlanta against the Braves, as tropical moisture inundated Georgia with the approach of Hurricane Helene. In the game the Mets did play, they lost 5-1 to the Braves on Tuesday as the Under (7.5) cashed.
Despite that loss Tuesday, the Mets are 6-2 in the past 8 games, while the Under has cashed in the past 2 outings. New York has dropped 3 in a row on the road.
The Brewers are locked in as the NL Central champions, and they cannot get to the top seed of the playoffs, with the LA Dodgers having 95 wins with 3 to play. Mathematically, the Brewers could catch the Philadelphia Phillies for the No. 2 seed, but the latter is 3 games clear of Milwaukee with 3 to play.
Mets at Brewers projected starters
LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Frankie Montas
Manaea (12-5, 3.29 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 178 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 3 ER, 3 H (2 HR), 0 BB, 6 K in 6-3 home victory vs. Philadelphia Phillies last Saturday
- 2024 road splits: 6-2, 2.77 ERA, 84 1/3 IP, 26 ER, 61 H, 6 HR, 35 BB, 79 K, .200 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1.14 WHIP in 15 starts
- Last 7 games: 3-0, 2.81 ERA, 48 IP, 15 ER, 22 H, 9 BB, 54 K, 0.65 WHIP
- Career vs. Brewers: 1-1, 4.19 ERA, 19 1/3 IP, 9 ER, 17 H, 2 HR, 6 BB, 23 K, 1.19 WHIP, 10.7 K/9
Montas (7-11, 4.85 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 146 2/3 IP with Reds and Brewers.
- Last start: No-decision, 2 2/3 IP, 8 R (7 ER), 6 H (3 HR), 2 BB, 4 K in 10-9 home win vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday
- 2024 home splits: 1-7, 4.97 ERA, 63 1/3 IP, 35 ER, 10 HR, 22 BB, 66 K, .264 OBA, 1.39 WHIP in 13 starts
- Last 7 games: 2-3, 4.81 ERA, 39 1/3 IP, 21 ER, 29 H, 15 BB, 46 K, 1.12 WHIP
- Career vs. Mets: 0-0, 5.40 ERA, 6 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 8 K, 1.35 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 in 2 appearances (1 start)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Mets at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Brewers +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+145) | Brewers +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Mets at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Brewers 3
Moneyline
The METS (-120) are a strong play behind the southpaw Manaea, as they fight and claw for a postseason berth.
The Brewers (+100) are already in the clubhouse with a division title, so it remains to be seen how hungry they’ll be, with the No. 3 seed in the NL all but likely to be theirs.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re a little more adventurous, playing METS -1.5 (+145) is worth a roll of the dice, as Montas has been very shaky at home in both of his stops this season. The Brewers +1.5 (-175) would be too costly, and not a high quality play, behind the erratic right-hander in this series opener.
Over/Under
OVER 7.5 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
While Manaea has been pitching well, posting a solid 2.81 ERA across his past 7 starts, Montas has a dismal 4.81 ERA across the same span, while turning in an ugly 4.97 ERA at home this season with Cincinnati and Milwaukee.
The Over is 8-4 in the past 12 games for the Mets, too. Go high, but be careful, as the Under is 6-3 across the past 9 for the Brew Crew.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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