The New York Mets (70-70) and Miami Marlins (58-81) cap off a three-game NL East series Thursday at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Marcus Stroman is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 9-12 with a 2.93 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 156 2/3 IP spanning 29 starts.
- Owns an ERA that is a would-be career-best for a full season.
- Has been quite good on the road with a 2.82 ERA over the last three years.
LHP Jesus Luzardo is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. Through 20 games (13 starts), Luzardo is 5-7 with a 7.00 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, and 4.5 BB/9 across 72 IP.
- Struggled mightily through much of August but has been solid over his last two starts with 3 ER over 11 2/3 IP.
- Has been beaten up by a low 64.5% left-on-base rate in posting a 7.15 ERA since the beginning of August.
Mets at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (-108) | Marlins +1.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Prediction
Mets 6, Marlins 4
Money line (ML)
The Mets and Marlins split the first two games of this series but New York is an improved 8-3 over its last 11 games.
Miami is 14-23 over its last 37 games, but the Fish have won three straight series at home. They are 6-2 over their last eight home games against the Mets.
The season series is knotted at 7-7, and New York’s National League entry owns a slim 51-48 edge in run differential.
The best edge in this one is on the Mets but with the run line in play: PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Mets are 5-2 in their last seven series finales.
One strength of New York’s offense is its success a third time through when facing starters. That’s a problem area for Luzardo who has coughed up a .928 OPS in third-time-through situations.
Expect the Marlins to expose more of the soft underbelly of their relief corps.
BACK THE METS -1.5 (-108).
Over/Under (O/U)
A below-the-mean batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations has been particularly hard on the New York nine.
Throw in some slight fade working against both bullpens, and TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-115).
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