The New York Mets (53-33) begin a 3-game series with the NL East rival Atlanta Braves (52-35) Monday. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
N.Y. is 6-4 straight up (SU) over its last 10 games but split a 4-game home series with the Miami Marlins this past weekend after losing the series finale Sunday 2-0 in extra innings.
The red-hot Braves are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games, 14-6 SU over their last 20 contests and are now just 1.5 games behind the Mets for 1st in the NL East.
Season series: Tied 2-2 but Atlanta has a plus-6 run differential in those meetings.
Mets at Braves projected starters
RHP Max Scherzer vs. LHP Max Fried
Scherzer is 5-1 with a 2.26 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 55 2/3 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in N.Y.’s 1-0 loss at the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday with 6-scoreless IP, 2 H, 0 BB and 11 K.
- 2021 vs. the Braves: 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 8 H, 4 HR, 0 BB and 18 K in 2 starts while pitching for the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Fried is 9-2 with a 2.52 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 107 1/3 IP over 17 starts.
- Last start: Win 3-0 at home Wednesday vs. the St. Louis Cardinals with 6-scoreless IP, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 vs. the Mets: One start — a 5-2 win in N.Y. May 2 — with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 6 K.
Mets at Braves odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:21 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Braves -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-205) | Braves -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Mets at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Mets 1
Money line
BET the BRAVES (-135) because they’ve been steamed up from a -125 ML opening favorite by sharp action per VegasInsider.com, Atlanta’s bats have been raking over the past month and the Braves have a slight edge in the pitching matchup.
Atlanta’s lineup ranks much higher than N.Y.’s in WAR (7.2-3.1), wRC+ (124-100), wOBA (.351-302) and hard-hit rate (46.2-37.2%) over the past 30 days, according to FanGraphs.
Fried is also one of the best pitchers in MLB that no one talks about. Fried has a 75.8% win rate with a 3.17 ERA over his 1st 4 full seasons in “The Show” and was Atlanta’s starter in its World Series-clinching Game 6 victory last year.
Atlanta’s bullpen is better than N.Y.’s in WAR (4.8-2.0), ERA (3.54-3.16), FIP (3.75-3.16), home runs allowed per 9 (1.13-0.82) and swing-and-miss rates, per FanGraphs.
BET the BRAVES (-135) to win 1 unit.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Atlanta’s edges over N.Y. aren’t big enough to “sprinkle” on the RL and the Braves -1.5 (+165) are just 19-24 RL as home favorites while the Mets +1.5 (-205) are 11-7 RL as road underdogs.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-130) only because both teams have their aces on the bump and strong bullpens to back them up. Also, the Under seems to be the sharp side considering the Over 7.5 (+105) is a lot cheaper.
However, this is only a lean because the Braves are 22-19-2 O/U as home favorites and the Mets are 10-5-3 O/U as road underdogs.
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