The Washington Football Team (2-2) hosts the New Orleans Saints (2-2) Sunday for their Week 5 showdown at FedExField. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Saints vs. Washington odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
New Orleans lost 27-21 in overtime in Week 4 to the New York Giants as a 7.5-point favorite in its first true-home opener. The Saints had nearly 10 more minutes in time of possession and were better on third down and in the red zone. New Orleans is 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and 1-3 Over/Under (O/U).
Washington pulled out a 34-30 road win over the Atlanta Falcons in a seesaw battle as a 1-point favorite last week. QB Taylor Heinicke connected with RB J.D. McKissic on a 30-yard TD pass with 33 seconds remaining to key the victory. Washington is 1-3 ATS and 3-1 O/U.
Saints at Washington odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 2:17 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Saints -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Washington +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread (ATS): Saints -2.5 (-112) | Washington +2.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Saints at Washington key injuries
Saints
- LT Terron Armstead (elbow) questionable
- C Erik McCoy (calf) questionable
Washington
- RG Brandon Scherff (knee) out
- LB Jon Bostic (pectoral) IR-out
- TE Logan Thomas (hamstring) questionable
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Saints at Washington odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Saints 26, Washington 17
Money line
I’d argue that New Orleans’ Week 4 loss to the Giants actually provides better value for a SAINTS (-135) wager. New Orleans squandered a double-digit lead on the Giants with less than 7 minutes remaining.
There’s not a ton of adjustments the Saints need to make and they have the humiliating loss as motivation. Also, since 2016, New Orleans has the second-best winning rate following a loss at 17-7 overall with a plus-6.3-point margin of victory.
These teams are neck-and-neck in strength of schedule (according to Football Outsiders). But, the Saints have a far higher EPA differential and are better than Washington in high-leverage situations (third-down conversions and red zone-scoring rates).
New Orleans’s offense is sixth in third-down conversion rate and second in red zone-scoring rate while the defense is 10th on third down and has the best red zone-scoring rate in the NFL.
On the other hand, Washington’s defense is last in third-down conversion rate and the offense is second-to-last in red zone-scoring rate.
More to the point, Washington’s defense is overrated based on 2020 results against backup quarterbacks. Football Outsiders ranks Washington’s defense 28th in the league despite playing the 23rd-toughest strength of schedule of opposing offenses.
Lastly, Washington’s results simply haven’t been that impressive. Washington barely beat the Giants in Week 2 and eked past the Falcons last week. Also, Washington failed to cover the spread in both losses while being outgained by at least 165 total yards in each contest.
GIMME 1 UNIT on the SAINTS (-135).
Against the spread
PASS because I’d rather just lay -135 with New Orleans’ money line than be cheap and bet the Saints -2.5 (-112).
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 44.5 (-112) for a half-unit wager if at all because I prefer New Orleans’ money line much more than the total in this spot.
The Saints’ ability to keep the chains moving and Washington’s poor third-down defense combined with its awful third-down offense means New Orleans should dictate the pace of this contest. According to Football Outsiders, the Saints play the slowest pace in the NFL and the third-slowest neutral situation pace.
On top of that, more than 90% of the action is on the Over (according to Pregame.com), which is based on Washington’s three consecutive high-scoring games.
However, New Orleans’ defense has the second-best DVOA (according to Football Outsiders) and has the personnel to make life difficult on Washington’s overrated offense.
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