The New Orleans Pelicans (24-15) battle the Dallas Mavericks (22-17) Saturday. Tip from American Airlines Center is set for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Pelicans vs. Mavericks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
New Orleans lost to Brooklyn 108-102 Friday in a nationally televised game. It failed to cover as a 4.5-point underdog. The Pelicans are 20-19 against the spread (ATS). They have covered just 1 of their last 4 games. The Pelicans rank 5th in the NBA in points per game (117.1).
The Mavericks, on the other hand, were blown out by the Celtics 124-95 Thursday. They didn’t cover, closing as a 3-point home underdog. The Mavs are 13-24-2 ATS on the season and 0-3 ATS over their last 3. The Mavs strength is defense, ranking 5th in opponents’ points per game (110.6).
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Pelicans at Mavericks odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pelicans +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Mavericks -270 (bet $270 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Pelicans +7.5 (-115) | Mavericks -7.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 225.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Pelicans at Mavericks key injuries
Pelicans
- F Brandon Ingram (toe) out
- F Zion Williamson (hamstring) out
Mavericks
- G Luka Doncic (ankle) probable
- F Dorian Finney-Smith (adductor) out
- F Maxi Kleber (hamstring) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Pelicans at Mavericks picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 115, Pelicans 113
Moneyline
PASS.
I like the Pelicans to keep things close, but the amount of the spread is too enticing to play the moneyline odds.
Against the spread
LEAN PELICANS +7.5 (-115).
Dallas is 3-6 ATS over its last 9 games and has failed to cover 2 straight games when closing as a 7-point favorite. The Mavericks are 13-24-2 ATS on the season.
The Pelicans are 7-5 ATS with a rest disadvantage as well. On the other hand, the Mavs are 3-7-1 ATS with a rest advantage and 7-12-2 ATS at home.
Considering the trends, back PELICANS +7.5 (-115).
Over/Under
BET OVER 225.5 (-105).
The Pelicans are 6-4 O/U in their last 10 and rank 5th in the NBA in offensive rebounding rate while the Mavs sit 14th in defensive rebounding rate which should give the Pels some extra opportunities on the glass.
The Mavs are down a key defensive piece in Finney-Smith as well. Both teams are 22-17 O/U this season, so the Over has consistently been the better play for both sides.
With the Pelicans 13th in pace, the game should play at a higher tempo, and no Finney-Smith could mean more G Tim Hardaway Jr., which provides additional firepower for Dallas.
Overall, back the OVER 225.5 (-105).
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