The New Orleans Pelicans (11-13) tangle with the Dallas Mavericks (12-14) Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center. Below, we analyze the Pelicans-Mavericks NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
New Orleans had a four-game win streak snapped with a 129-116 beatdown administered by the Chicago Bulls Wednesday. Over the last five games, the Pelicans have the second-highest effective shooting percentage, fifth-highest assist-to-turnover ratio and second-highest rebounding rate.
The Mavericks are starting to turn their season around after a slow start as winners of three straight and four of their last five games. These haven’t been impressive wins per se since Dallas covered the spread in only one of those games, which was its only ATS win in the last 12 games.
Dallas swept the season series last year against New Orleans 4-0 (3-1 against the spread) and PG Luka Doncic had his way in those games. Doncic averaged 28.5 points, 12.8 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game with a 123 offensive rating in their four meetings last season.
Pelicans at Mavericks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Pelicans +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Mavericks -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pelicans +3.5 (-115) | Mavericks -3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 232.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Pelicans at Mavericks: Key injuries
None affecting the betting odds.
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Pelicans at Mavericks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Pelicans 125, Mavericks 121
Money line (ML)
New Orleans’ money line is a little cheaper than I hoped so officially it’s a lean on PELICANS (+125) but the spread is a much better play.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Stylistically, the Pelicans match up very well with the Mavericks. New Orleans attempts the second-highest rate of shots at the rim and Dallas allows the second-highest field-goal percentage on shots at the rim, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Also, the Mavericks excel in the mid-range (fifth-best field goal percentage on mid-range shots), but the Pelicans are sixth in opponent’s shooting percentage on mid-range attempts.
New Orleans is an elite rebounding team which is part of the reason it leads the Association in second-chance points. Dallas is one of the worst rebounding teams and is 20th in opponent’s second-chance points per game. Furthermore, both are top-10 in FTA/FGA rate but Dallas is 26th on opponent’s FTA/FGA rate whereas New Orleans is 11th.
TAKE PELICANS +3.5 (-115) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both defenses are pretty bad and it would take a couple of no shows from these offenses for the Under to cash. Dallas’ offense is starting to come around after a slow start, which explains five consecutive Overs cashing in Mavericks games.
Lastly, the Pelicans have the third-highest Over percentage in the Association and the Mavericks are 6-4 O/U as a home favorite with a plus-8.6-point margin against the projected total.
As square as this sounds, the OVER 232.5 (-115) is the best play in the Pelicans-Mavericks meeting.
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Also see:
- Lonzo Ball talks improved free-throw shooting: ‘I know I can make them’ (Lonzo Wire)
- Hoops Hype rumors: Pelicans | Mavericks
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