The New Orleans Pelicans (16-27) travel to Beantown to play the Boston Celtics (22-22) for a Martin Luther King Day afternoon contest. Tip-off at TD Garden is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Pelicans vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
NOLA got smacked 120-105 by the Nets in Brooklyn Saturday after winning its previous two games. In January, the Pelicans are 3-5 straight-up (SU), 4-4 against the spread (ATS) with a 3-5 Over/Under (O/U) record and the 20th-best net rating at minus-3.9.
Boston won its fourth in the past five games by beating the Chicago Bulls 114-112 Saturday but failed to cover as a 7.5-point home favorite. The Celtics are 5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS and 5-3 O/U with the ninth-best net rating at plus-4.7.
The Pelicans have won and covered their last three meetings with the Celtics.
Pelicans at Celtics odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:52 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pelicans +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Celtics -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Pelicans +5.5 (-102) | Celtics -5.5 (-122)
- Over/Under: 216.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Pelicans at Celtics key injuries
Pelicans
- None
Celtics
- PG Marcus Smart (health and safety protocols) out
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Pelicans at Celtics odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Pelicans 108, Celtics 106
Money line
I’d lightly SPRINKLE on the PELICANS (+200) with the plan of betting more on their spread since that’s the sharper play.
However, I’m high on NOLA’s starting 5, and the absence of Smart weakens Boston’s already thin backcourt.
The Pelicans’ current starting 5 has a plus-10.2 points per 100 possessions adjusted net rating, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
In fact, NOLA’s 5 starters grade in the 82nd percentile or higher in adjusted on/off net rating for their respective positions, per CTG.
Plus, Smart’s replacement in the starting lineup, PG Dennis Schroder, grades in the 23rd percentile of point guards in assist rate (CTG).
Neither team is very deep as NOLA’s bench ranks 25th in points per game (PPG) and Boston’s ranks 28th. So, each team’s starting 5 weighs heavily into this handicap for me.
The Pelicans get a much better shot quality than the Celtics. NOLA ranks 12th in location-effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) and Boston ranks 23rd in location eFG%, per CTG.
Again, only SPRINKLE on the PELICANS (+200) if at all because New Orleans plus the points is the better bet.
Against the spread
Definitely BET the PELICANS +5.5 (-102) heavier than or instead of their money line because they have been a lot more profitable than the Celtics lately.
The Pelicans had a four-game ATS winning streak snapped in the loss at the Nets, and the Celtics are 1-3 ATS in their last four games. Plus, Boston is just 8-11 ATS against sub.-500 teams, including 3-6 ATS at home in that situation.
NEW ORLEANS +5.5 (-102) is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN to the UNDER 216.5 (-110).
The Pelicans are 5-13 O/U as road underdogs with a minus-4.7 total margin. The Celtics are 8-11 O/U as home favorites with a minus-3.3 total margin.
Also, both teams rank 20th or lower in pace. Each has a bottom-10 adjusted offensive rating, per CTG. The Celtics are 24th in eFG% and the Pelicans are 26th in eFG%.
LEAN UNDER 216.5 (-110) for a one-third unit only because my prediction is only a few points off of the projected total.
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