The New England Patriots (10-6) head to South Beach Sunday for their Week 18 game with the Miami Dolphins (8-8) at Hard Rock Stadium. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Patriots vs. Dolphins odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
New England clinched an AFC playoff berth and can still win the AFC East with a victory and if the New York Jets upset the Buffalo Bills.
The Patriots also have an outside shot at the AFC’s 1-seed but need to win Sunday and for the Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Tennesee Titans to lose.
New England snapped a two-game losing skid in Week 17 by waxing the Jacksonville Jaguars 50-10 at home as a 17.5-point favorite. New England is 10-6 ATS and 8-8 O/U.
Miami was eliminated from playoff contention last week after getting blasted by the Titans 34-3 as a 3-point road underdog.
The Dolphins entered Week 17 on a seven-game winning streak after starting 1-7 but their magic ran out. The Dolphins are 8-7-1 ATS and 6-10 O/U.
Miami has won and covered versus New England in three of its past four meetings including on the road earlier this season 17-16 as a 3.5-point underdog.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NFL Week 18 picks and predictions
Patriots at Dolphins odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:26 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Patriots -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Dolphins +230 (bet $100 to win $230)
- Against the spread (ATS): Patriots -6.5 (-108) | Dolphins +6.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 39.5 (O: -117 | U: -103)
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Patriots at Dolphins key injuries
Patriots
- DB Kyle Dugger (hand) out
- LB Dont’a Hightower (knee) out
- C David Andrews (shoulder) questionable
- DT Christian Barmore (knee) questionable
- K Nick Folk (knee) questionable
- RB Damien Harris (hamstring) questionable
- WR Jakobi Meyers (thigh) questionable
- DB Adrian Phillips (knee) questionable
- OL Isaiah Wynn (hip) questionable
Dolphins
- None.
Let’s Make This Interesting
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Patriots at Dolphins odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Dolphins 23, Patriots 17
Money line
SPRINKLE on the DOLPHINS (+230) because it’s a fat payout and I feel that good about Miami plus the points.
This line suggests that the Dolphins will mail it in Sunday and already be making their offseason plans. However, I reject that notion because Miami could’ve given up on its season after falling to 1-7.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa still has to prove he’s Miami’s franchise QB moving forward and there’s no better way to do that than to beat New England to end the season.
Patriots QB Mac Jones is still a rookie and has struggled in recent weeks. Jones has a 58.2% completion rate with a 5 TD/4 INT ratio and a 76.7 QB Rating in his last four games.
Dolphins head coach Brian Flores is a defensive mastermind from the Bill Belichick coaching tree and can install pressure and coverage schemes to confuse Jones.
Again, the plan is to SPRINKLE on the DOLPHINS (+230) and bet more on Miami plus the points.
Against the spread
Definitely BET the DOLPHINS +6.5 (-112) heavier than or instead of their money line.
Miami is 7-2 ATS in its past nine home games against New England and the home team is 15-4 ATS in the last 19 Patriots-Dolphins meetings.
The DOLPHINS +6.5 (-112) is my favorite wager in this contest.
Over/Under
PASS since my prediction aligns very closely to the projected total so I cannot call it either way.
The Under is too obvious since it’s cashed in four of the past five Patriots-Dolphins meetings. But, it’s hard not going Over a total set below 40 points.
Also see: NFL Week 18 odds and lines
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