The New England Patriots (6-7) are back on the road in Week 15 for their third straight game away from home. They’ll visit the Miami Dolphins (8-5), who are fighting for positioning in the AFC playoff race. Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET Sunday. Below, we preview the Patriots-Dolphins betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.
Patriots at Dolphins: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Patriots +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Dolphins -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Patriots +2.5 (-110) | Dolphins -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 41.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Patriots at Dolphins: Game notes
- The Patriots beat the Dolphins 21-11 in Week 1 but have gone just 5-7 since.
- The Dolphins rank second in the NFL in points allowed per game despite ranking just 18th in passing yards allowed and 21st in rushing yards allowed.
- The Patriots have the fifth-most rushing yards in the league but rank just 29th in passing.
- New England is 2-1 in its last three games against the Dolphins, with an average score of 29.3-12.7.
- The total has gone Under in each of the Patriots’ last five games. It has also gone Under in four of the last six meetings between these teams.
Patriots at Dolphins: Key injuries
Patriots
- OL Jermaine Eluemunor (ankle) questionable
- CB Jonathan Jones (neck) questionable
- CB J.C. Jackson (knee) questionable
- RB James White (foot) questionable
Dolphins
- TE Mike Gesicki (shoulder) questionable
- OL Ereck Flowers (ankle) questionable
- WR DeVante Parker (hamstring) questionable
- S Bobby McClain (ankle) questionable
Patriots at Dolphins: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Dolphins 21, Patriots 14
Money line (?)
The Dolphins come in as the much better team, which is rare considering the Patriots’ incredible success over the last 20 years. Miami has a top-five defense this season and an offense that does enough to win games as a complementary piece.
I like the DOLPHINS (-130) to win outright at home, with Miami being a traditionally difficult place for the Patriots to win.
Against the spread (?)
The spread of 2.5 points isn’t very big at all, especially considering the Dolphins are at home. Miami’s defense will shut down New England’s offense for the better part of this game, and as good as the Patriots’ secondary is, their run defense is porous.
Take the DOLPHINS -2.5 (-110) to cover the 2.5-point margin and win by at least a field goal at home as they continue to fight for a playoff berth.
Over/Under (?)
The total has gone Under in most recent meetings between these two teams, and even with the line being lower at 41.5 points, I still like the UNDER (-115). Both secondaries are great, which will make throwing the ball difficult.
I don’t see either offense doing too much successfully throughout the game, which is why you should take the Under.
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Also see:
- Flashback Friday: Patriots squish the fish in 2020 season opener (Patriots Wire)
- Multiple paths to Dolphins clinching postseason berth in Week 16 (Dolphins Wire)
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