Entering the final three days of the 2019-20 regular season, the NBA has released an official list of playoff seeding scenarios for each team.
For the Houston Rockets, who have two games left, the information confirms that they can only finish at No. 3, No. 4, or No. 5 in the final Western Conference standings before the playoffs.
If the Rockets lose to Indiana on Wednesday afternoon, or if the Denver Nuggets defeat the Los Angeles Clippers later that night, the possibilities for Houston would shrink to No. 4 and No. 5.
Here’s the official scenario list for where Houston could be seeded, based on the results of remaining scheduled games for each team.
- No. 3 if Rockets win both games and Nuggets lose both games
- No. 4 if Rockets win both games and Nuggets win at least one game OR if Rockets win one game and Thunder loses at least one game OR if Rockets lose both games and Thunder loses both games OR if Rockets lose both games and Thunder and Jazz each win once
- No. 5 if Rockets lose both games and Thunder wins at least one game and Jazz lose OR if Rockets lose one game and Thunder wins both games
Western Conference playoff seeding scenario for 2-6 seeds and 8-9 Play-In: pic.twitter.com/r9j0mfXBdf
— Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA) August 12, 2020
The Rockets (44-26) and Thunder (43-27), who entered Wednesday at No. 4 and No. 5 in the West, respectively, are highly likely to meet in the first round of the playoffs. Since games are being played without fans at the NBA “bubble” in Florida, the ordering of four or five is insignificant. The winner of that No. 4 vs. No. 5 series would then face off in the second round against the winner of the No. 1 (Lakers) vs. No. 8 series.
The only scenario where Houston is not at No. 4 or No. 5 is if the Rockets win both of their last two games (Pacers, 76ers), and the Nuggets lose their last two games (Clippers, Raptors). If that were to somehow happen, Houston would jump to the No. 3 spot.
Similarly, the only scenario where Oklahoma City is not at No. 4 or No. 5 is if the Thunder lose both of their remaining two games (Heat, Clippers) while the Jazz win their regular-season finale vs. San Antonio.
Basically, there are only two scenarios where it's not Houston-OKC as the No. 4 vs. No. 5:
1.) Denver loses out, Houston wins out
2.) Utah beats SA, OKC loses out(Fun fact: If both of those happened, it would STILL be Houston-OKC, just as the 3 vs. 6.)
— Ben DuBose (@BenDuBose) August 12, 2020
But if both of those remote scenarios happened, then Houston and Oklahoma City would still meet in the first round — just as the No. 3 vs. No. 6, rather than No. 4 vs. No. 5. The winner would then play the winner of a series between the No. 2 seed (likely Clippers) and No. 7 Dallas.
The only way Houston would not face Oklahoma City in the first round is if only one (but not both) of those remote scenarios happened. Should that somehow occur, Houston’s opponent would be Utah.
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