The Denver Nuggets head south to face the Miami Heat Wednesday in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. Tip from Kaseya Center is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nuggets vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
Series: Tied 1-1
The Heat were too much in the 4th quarter on Sunday as they took down Denver 111-108 in Game 2. Denver played a solid game, shooting 52% from the floor and 39% from distance. However Miami went 17-for-35 (48%) from behind the 3-point line.
Denver survived an early charge from Miami and took over the game in the 2nd, going up 57-51 at half. Miami outscored them 17-5 to open the 4th and hung on for the 3-point win. Denver was 11-0 in the playoffs and 37-1 in the regular season when leading the game by double digits at any point.
Heat F Jimmy Butler had 21 points, but he’s still having to work hard for everything on the floor. PG Gabe Vincent led Miami with 23 points. Nuggets C Nikola Jokic had 41 points and 11 rebounds, and PG Jamal Murray had 18 points and 10 assists.
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Nuggets at Heat odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nuggets -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Heat +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +2.5 (-110) | Heat -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Nuggets at Heat key injuries
Nuggets
- None
Heat
- SG Tyler Herro (hand) – questionable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Nuggets at Heat picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 110, Nuggets 108
Moneyline
Miami’s win in Game 2 snapped a 7-game losing streak to the Nuggets, who have won 8 of 10 against them since the 2019-20 season. The Heat are 6-2 at home this postseason and were 34-17 in the regular season.
The switch to put F Kevin Love, who had 6 points and 10 boards, in the starting lineup really lit a spark. I think they have enough left in the tank to sneak by in this game. A sticking point for me, though, is Miami was up by as many as 12 in the 4th quarter, and Denver kept coming. I’d rather have the points than the so-so +120 Heat ML.
PASS.
Against the spread
If you’re on board with Miami finding a way in Game 3, the spread provides a lot of insurance but doesn’t drain too much value. Miami is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home and 13-5 in their last 18 overall. The Heat are also 5-2 in their last 7 NBA Finals games.
Take the HEAT +2.5 (-110).
Over/Under
This total has cashed an Over in 3 of the last 4 meetings between the teams. The Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Miami and 6-1 in the last 7 overall. The Over is 6-2-1 for Denver in its last 9 road games.
Even at the naked eye, the total looks a little low. I’ll take the OVER 214.5 (-110).
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