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The 2023 college football season kicks off on Saturday as the Navy Midshipmen and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish lock horns at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET (NBC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Navy vs. Notre Dame odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Midshipmen kick off a new era of football, as Brian Newberry coaches his 1st game at the Naval Academy, taking over for the departed Ken Niumatalolo. Offensive coordinator Grant Chesnut is also new, and it appears Navy will spice things up a bit on offense. The Middies will still use a ground-based attack, but there should be a little more of the aerials, which would make the Blue Angels proud.
The Fighting Irish turn to QB Sam Hartman to get Notre Dame back into the national championship picture. Coach Marcus Freeman nabbed the signal caller via the transfer portal after liking what he saw from the QB at Wake Forest.
The Irish eked out a 35-32 win over the Middies in Baltimore last season, winning for the 5th straight season in the series. Navy’s last win in the series came in Jacksonville, Fla., on Nov. 5, 2016, a 28-27 thriller.
Notre Dame is No. 13 in the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll.
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Navy vs. Notre Dame odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 5:31 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Navy +800 (bet $100 to win $800) | Notre Dame -1400 (bet $1,400 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Navy +20.5 (-110) | Notre Dame -20.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 49 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Navy vs. Notre Dame picks and predictions
Prediction
Notre Dame 38, Navy 13
Moneyline
Notre Dame (-1400) is going to win this game, and it won’t have anything to do with being in Ireland, or the luck of the Irish. It is just the better team, by far, and much more balanced, too.
However, you cannot risk 14 times your potential return, no matter how sure of a thing it looks to be. Over the long haul, betting such heavy favorites is a recipe for disaster.
PASS.
Against the spread
I believe NOTRE DAME -20.5 (-110) opens with a dominant performance overseas. Navy +20.5 (-110) is looking to get back to its 2019 form, where it led the nation in rushing and won 11 games. The run game has fallen off in recent seasons, and the pass game has not quite filled the void. That’s why they have had a precipitous drop in victories. Now, we have a new regime, and it might be a slow start trying to get their footing, especially against a national power.
I don’t like this line, but as long as it stays under 21, it is a decent play. Navy will make it interesting early, as RB Daba Fofana and QB Tai Lavatai keep them in it. However, look for the Irish to pull away late.
Over/Under
OVER 49 (-110) is the slight lean. I think Hartman is able to generate plenty of offense against a Navy defense which no longer has the dominant tackling machine John Marshall. While the defensive backs should be one of the better units for the Middies, they’ll be tested early and often, and eventually they’ll likely wear down in the second half.
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