The Navy Midshipmen (3-7, 3-4 AAC) meet the No. 18 UCF Knights (8-2, 5-1) Saturday at FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando. Kickoff is scheduled for 11 a.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Navy vs. UCF odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
The Midshipmen, who were 17-point underdogs, put up quite the fight in a neutral-site battle against rival and then-No. 25 Notre Dame last Saturday, falling 35-32 in Baltimore. Navy covered the spread for the 2nd game in a row and 6th time in the past 8 games. The Over is 5-1 in the Middies’ past 6.
The Knights, ranked No. 20 in the College Football Playoff rankings, are vying for a spot in the AAC Championship Game. UCF is tied with Cincinnati for 2nd place in the league standings, but it holds the tiebreaker with a head-to-head win Oct. 29.
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Navy at UCF odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:44 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Navy +550 (bet $100 to win $550) | UCF -800 (bet $800 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Navy +15.5 (-109) | UCF -15.5 (-111)
- Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (O: -109 | U: -111)
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Navy at UCF picks and predictions
Prediction
UCF 34, Navy 17
Moneyline
UCF (-800) will cost 8 times your potential return, and that’s too much risk.
Navy isn’t likely to put up as much fight as last week as this isn’t as much of a rivalry game. Plus, the Middies are no longer bowl eligible, so it’s unlikely they’ll be terribly motivated here.
PASS.
Against the spread
UCF -15.5 (-111) is worth a play laying the points as the Knights look for a 4th consecutive cover. The Knights have covered all 3 of their home games inside the conference, too.
Surprisingly, Navy has covered all 4 of its road games this season, but again, after a 7th loss clinched a losing season and no bowl bid, the Middies are likely to be disinterested.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 52.5 (-111).
While the Over has cashed in 5 of the past 6 games for the Midshipmen, the Under is 6-2 in their past 8 road outings, while cashing at a 4-1 clip in the past 5 against teams with a winning record. For UCF, the Under has hit in 4 of the past 5 games at home.
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