The Navy Midshipmen (2-3, 2-1 AAC) and the SMU Mustangs (2-3, 0-1) meet in a conference game Friday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Navy vs. SMU odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Midshipmen started off slowly, including an outright loss to Delaware of the FCS as a 13-point favorite in the opener. However, Navy has wins in 2 of the last 3 games straight-up, while covering each of the last 3 outings.
The Mustangs opened 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS, but have dropped the last 3 games. That includes a 41-19 drumming from UCF on the road last weekend. SMU struggles to stop the run, and that’s not a good sign against a Navy team which always runs the ball well.
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Navy at SMU odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:22 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Navy +370 (bet $100 to win $370) | SMU -520 (bet $520 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Navy +12.5 (-110) | SMU -12.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 57.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Navy at SMU picks and predictions
Prediction
SMU 34, Navy 27
Moneyline
SMU (-520) will cost you over 5 times your potential return, and that’s just too expensive for a team which cannot play defense very well.
PASS.
Against the spread
NAVY +12.5 (-110) is a strong play in this AAC road game. The Middies have managed an impressive 231.8 yards per game on the ground, ranking 12th overall, while they have mixed in an occasional pass. Navy isn’t scoring a lot of points, but it has picked up the pace lately.
SMU -12.5 (-110) will have difficulty pulling away from Navy, as the Mustangs rank 106th overall with 179.8 rushing yards per game allowed. Whenever SMU scores, Navy should be able to grind out an answer.
Over/Under
OVER 57.5 (-108) is the lean here.
While the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 road games for Navy, the Over has hit in 4 of the last 5 games inside the conference, while going 11-4 in the last 15 against losing teams.
For SMU, the Over has cashed in 4 of the last 5 games at home, while going 4-1 in the last 5 home games against Navy, and 5-2 in the previous 7 meetings in this series overall.
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