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The Navy Midshipmen (1-1) and the Memphis Tigers (2-0) meet Thursday at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Navy vs. Memphis odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Midshipmen head into this American Athletic Conference (AAC) opener with a 42-3 setback against Notre Dame in Dublin and a 24-0 victory over Wagner of the FCS. The Middies have failed to cover the spread in both outings so far, while cashing the Under in each contest.
The Tigers are off to a 2-0 straight up (SU) start, while splitting against the number and on totals. Memphis picked up a 37-3 road win at Arkansas State of the Sun Belt Conference, cashing as a 21-point favorite as the Under (57) cashed last time out. The team’s 1st win was against Bethune Cookman of the FCS, a 56-14 rout as the Over (59.5) connected.
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Navy at Memphis odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:06 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Navy +450 (bet $100 to win $450) | Memphis -650 (bet $650 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Navy +14.5 (-105) | Memphis -14.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Navy at Memphis picks and predictions
Prediction
Memphis 38, Navy 17
Moneyline
Memphis (-650) will cost you 6 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk and not enough reward.
The Tigers lead the series 5-3 since Navy joined the AAC in 2015 for football. The Middies won 3 of the 1st 4 meetings, but the Tigers have dominated the series since, winning the last 4 in the series, with 3 of those victories coming by 12 or more points. The last 2 wins have been by an average of 20.0 points per game (PPG).
PASS.
Against the spread
MEMPHIS -14.5 (-115) is the play in this conference opener, especially at home.
Navy +14.5 (-105) has really struggled to put points on the board, as even Wagner held down the normally potent rushing attack of the Midshipmen. Navy’s defense did its job, but the Middies managed just 18 first downs against the FCS opponent, while going 4 of 13 on 3rd-down efficiency. And Navy won just 24-0 despite a plus-2 turnover ratio.
On the flip side, the Tigers have racked up 93 points in 2 games, while allowing just 17 total points. The offense is potent, and the Midshipmen don’t have the horses to keep up.
Over/Under
OVER 47.5 (-110) is the play Thursday night, and the Tigers might do most of the heavy lifting. Again, Memphis has scored 37 or more points in each of its 2 games to date.
Navy hasn’t had any modicum of success on offense, so that’s why you need to be a little cautious here. But Memphis has rolled up plenty of points this season, and it has dominated against Navy in the past 2 seasons. Look for the total to get into the 50’s.
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