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ESPN’s SP+ Ranking system, created by Bill Connelly, is a good barometer to project how a team will be performing, and each offseason Connelly, after recruiting season has concluded and the transfer portal has already gone through a major phase, publishes his preseason rankings as a way to predict team performance the next season. In his first rankings of the season, Connelly’s SP+ system has MSU Football ranked No. 45 overall.
Michigan State’s defense is still ranked highly at No. 21, but their offense is projected by the system to be fairly dismal. The Spartans’ offense is No. 106 in this first SP+ ranking. While fans will and should hope for more, it is the first season under a new, defensive-minded coach and the offense wasn’t exactly thriving under Dantonio these last two years either.
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For what it’s worth, the rankings are based on three main factors, weighted according to predictiveness:
- Returning production
- Recent recruiting
- Recent history
Here is the explanation of what SP+ is, according to Connelly:
“It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”
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