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Mountain West Win Totals: Who Provides Best Value?
Early season win totals are out.
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Two locations have released their win totals from Caesars and the sportsbook from Draft Kings and they are both different enough to possibly change a bettor’s opinion on to take the over-under on each site.
We will do our best to guide the right way on what team to take the over on for these win totals — hopefully, there will be a season to best on as well.
We will go alphabetical order with both websites projections listed and the way we would be leaning. Also, with these picks, you have to take an over or under so if a win total is set at six wins you have to take seven or five. That makes the games on the half mark easier to pick.
Also, these are for regular season games only, so no bowl, conference title games, or playoff games count to these totals.
Air Force
Caesars – 8.5
Draft Kings – 8
Unless you are really, really, really, sure stay away from whole numbers because if the Falcons get eight wins, you lose. Personally, Falcons likely should be above eight wins so both should be achievable.
Air Force returns one of the best running backs in the conference in Kadin Remsberg who split time with other Falcons running backs, which is normal, but if he is the guy then Air Force will have a top-tier back and a returning experienced quarterback in Donald Hammond III. Nine wins seem likely and taking the over on both is a pretty nice play.
Boise State
Caesars – 9.5
Draft Kings – 10
Predicting a team to win 11 games is foolish, regardless, how good if it is Alabama, Clemson, or Boise State. The Broncos have the benefit of doubt to winning so many games over the past two decades, they also return some talent on this 2020 team including quarterback Hank Bachmeier.
The Draft Kings line is extremely iffy, either way, going over to 11 wins has happened only twice since they joined the Mountain West. However, taking 10 wins from Caesars for the over to hit is much more likely. In that same timeframe of the Broncos, they have won 10 or more regular season games six times.
Colorado State
Caesars – 6.5
Draft Kings – 6
The Rams have a new head coach in Steve Addazio but the offense is still in place with players like QB Patrick O’Brien and WR Warren Jackson could be the best passing duo on the Mountain West.
Basically, if you are taking the over you are saying that the Rams are going to a bowl game this upcoming year. Their non-conference schedule is manageable with games vs. Colorado, Oregon State, Vanderbilt and Northern Colorado. However, in league play they have to travel to Boise State, San Diego State and Air Force.
There is potential for Colorado State to make a bowl game but this is an iffy proposition to take the over but it is not out of the possibility for them to go bowling. Of the two, personally would take the under on both but lean toward Caesars because a bowl game is in the works.
Fresno State
Caesars – 6
Draft Kings – 6
Fresno State has a lot going on with a new quarterback and a new head coach in Kalen Deboer. Last year, the Bulldogs went just 4-8 and the optimism is wishy washy, specifically with no spring football. The six-win total is also making this line one to stay away but the safe bet would be to take the under.
Hawaii
Caesars – 6
Draft Kings – 6
A theme within the Mountain West is new coaches and the Warriors fit into that with Todd Graham taking over for Nick Rolovich. Hawaii does play 13 regular season games so that gives them a leg up to get to this six win total. If Hawaii stays true, or close, to the spread offense and with Chevan Cordeiro under center the team should be on track for a bowl game.
Again, with the line of six for both outlets, it is not easy to make a pick but the over should be fairly confident in the Warriors getting to seven.
New Mexico
Caesars – 3.5
Draft Kings – 3.5
Sorry, but take the under. This is a Year 0 situation for Danny Gonzales. The Lobos do have winnable games on its schedule in New Mexico State, UMass and Idaho State. Beyond that, maybe they get a win as they host San Jose State. Realistically just stay away from betting this team.