The San Francisco Giants (61-35) start a three-game set with the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates (36-60) Friday at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 2-2.
RHP Chad Kuhl is on the bump for the Pirates. He is 3-5 with a 4.31 ERA (56 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 across 12 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 5 BB and 3 K last Friday against the New York Mets.
- 2021 road stats: 1-4 with a 6.07 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.55 WHIP and 1.5 K/BB rate through seven starts.
RHP Johnny Cueto is San Francisco’s projected starter. He is 6-5 with a 4.01 ERA (83 IP, 37 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 over 15 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 5 K in San Francisco’s 2-1 loss at the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday.
- Cueto earned a no-decision against Pittsburgh May 15, with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 2 K in San Francisco’s 8-6 road loss.
- vs. Pirates on the current roster (44 PA): 2.40 FIP with a .268 batting average, .277 wOBA, .438 expected slugging percentage, 15.9 K% and 86.5 mph exit velocity.
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Pirates at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Giants -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-130) | Giants -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Giants 4, Pirates 1
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the GIANTS (-190) because they are better than the Pirates in every facet of the game and San Francisco has the best winning percentage both at home and against right-handed starters.
However, these things are already baked into the line and close to 90% of the cash wagered is on the Giants, according to Pregame.com.
Their money line is a little pricier than I’d like with Cueto on the bump; however, this isn’t the NFL where the “any given Sunday” mantra applies and there’s an ocean-sized gap between these two sides.
That said, I’d play it safe here and risk only 1 unit on San Francisco’s money line. As in, if your standard wager is $100, put that on the GIANTS (-190) to earn a profit of $52.63.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the GIANTS -1.5 (+105) based on all the previous analysis combined with San Francisco having the second-best cover rate as a home favorite with a 20-14 ATS record. Pittsburgh has the second-worst cover rate on the road at 19-30 ATS.
Personally, I’ll be greedy and take San Francisco’s run line instead of the money line to go for a bigger payout but, either way, the Giants are the right side in this contest.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 8 (-105) because three of the four Pirates-Giants meetings went Under the total and San Francisco is 5-9 O/U when Cueto gets the start.
However, the Pirates are 8-4 O/U in games Kuhl starts and I’m even less confident in Pittsburgh’s bullpen than Kuhl.
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