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The Missouri Tigers (5-1, 1-1 SEC) and the Kentucky Wildcats (5-1, 2-1) meet Saturday at Kroger Field in Lexington, Ky. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Missouri vs. Kentucky odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Tigers are coming off a disappointing 49-39 loss to LSU at Faurot Field in Columbia last weekend, as the defense struggled mightily. That’s 4 straight games Mizzou has allowed at least 21 points, although the offense is good for 30 or points in each of the outings. That’s a great recipe for totals going high, with the Over cashing in all 4 games.
The Wildcats were humbled by top-ranked Georgia in between the hedges last Saturday, as Kentucky was throttled 51-13 as a 14.5-point underdog. The offensive production was the lowest of the season, and the points allowed were more than the previous 3 games combined. The Over has hit in 3 in a row for UK.
Missouri is No. 25 and Kentucky is No. 23 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
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Missouri at Kentucky odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:19 q.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Missouri +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Kentucky -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Missouri +2.5 (-110) | Kentucky -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Missouri at Kentucky picks and predictions
Prediction
Kentucky 32, Missouri 29
Moneyline
KENTUCKY (-135) is worth a look in this SEC East matchup, which is an elimination game of sorts. The winner is still, technically, alive for the division title, while a 2-loss team in the division is all but eliminated from SEC Championship Game contention.
The Wildcats have won the past 2 meetings, including a 21-17 visit to Columbia last season. UK has won 7 of the past 8 meetings overall, too.
The last 2 seasons have each been decided by 1 score, however, so expect a tight affair to the end.
Against the spread
KENTUCKY -2.5 (-110) is worth a look, as the Wildcats are a solid 3-0 ATS on their home field against FBS opponents, although some Ball State bettors are still reeling after the bad beat in Week 1, which Kentucky won 44-14 to cover a 25-point number.
While both of these teams struggled defensively last weekend, Missouri +2.5 (-110) has made a habit of it for most of the season. It has allowed 27 or more points in 3 of the past 4 games. I think Kentucky moves the ball well enough to win and grab the cover.
Over/Under
OVER 50.5 (-110) is the best play on the board. Kentucky allowed 51 points to Georgia last weekend, while Mizzou coughed up 49 points. We should see a high-scoring affair, although I think both defenses will be slightly better than what we saw last week.
Mizzou has cashed the Over in 4 straight games, while Kentucky has seen the total go high in 3 in a row, all inside the SEC. Look for a higher-scoring affair on Saturday.
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