The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals hit the field for the 1st time in 2023 on Thursday at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: The Twins held a 12-7 mark over Kansas City in 2022.
Minnesota finished 2022 with a 78-84 record, placing 3rd in the AL Central. The Twins were above .500 for most of the season, but hit a slump in September and October, going 11-22 during those months.
The Royals finished 65-97 last year, placing last in the AL Central for the 2nd time in 5 seasons. Kansas City’s 640 runs scored were 4th-worst in the American League and its 810 runs allowed were last in the AL.
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Twins at Royals projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Zack Greinke
Lopez makes debut with the Twins after spending the 1st 5 years of his MLB career with the Miami Marlins. He finished 10-10 last year with a 3.75 ERA, and had a 1.18 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 180 IP.
- Started last season off hot, allowing just 1 ER in his 1st 4 starts
- Went 3-3 in his last 10 starts in 2022 with a 4.15 ERA
Greinke enters his 20th season and makes is 2nd straight Opening Day start for the Royals. He was 4-9 last season with a 3.68 ERA, and had a 1.34 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 4.8 K/9 in 137 IP.
- Went 0-4 in 5 starts vs. Minnesota last season
- Was 1-3 in his last 10 starts in 2022; had a 1.81 ERA in his final 8 starts, allowing just 9 ER
Twins at Royals odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:09 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Royals +135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+110) | Royals +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: +101)
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Twins at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Royals 3
Moneyline
The Royals surprisingly dominated spring training, going 19-13 in the Cactus League and scoring the most runs in the MLB. While spring training stats can be misleading, it could be a sign that Kansas City’s bats are entering the season hot. However, 39-year-old Greinke had a couple of tough outings against Minnesota last year.
The Twins, meanwhile, are rolling with Lopez who hopes to improve upon his good 2022 campaign. Lopez had 174 strikeouts last year and allowed a batting average of just .234. He also tends to start seasons strong. Expect him to have a good showing against the Royals.
BET TWINS -155, or combine it in a parlay if you’re not feeling the low payout.
Run line/Against the spread
With two good starters facing off, this could be a tight one up until the bullpen comes into play. With that it mind, it’s probably not worth buying runs until we see some real-deal major league action first.
PASS on the spread.
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Over/Under
The 8.5 total seems a bit steep for Opening Day with starters who had sub-4.00 ERAs last season, though this game could blow up depending on how the bullpens show up for each squad. For now, we’ll point to the fact that the Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these AL Central rivals as a reason to back the Under.
LEAN UNDER 8.5 RUNS (+101).
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