The Minnesota Twins (28-26) and Houston Astros (31-22) meet in the 2nd of a 3-game set Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 3-1
The Twins took Monday’s series opener 7-5 in 10 innings. They had a 4-1 lead until Houston went up 5-4 in the 7th inning. Minnesota tied it in the 9th and plated 2 in the 10th to seal the deal. The Twins haven’t been able to gain much traction at 4-6, 9-11 and 14-16 over the last 10, 20 and 30 games, respectively.
Houston is 7-3 over the last 10, but that’s a little deceiving because 6 of those wins were against the futile Oakland Athletics. The Astros are just 6-8 against the AL Central thus far and are a so-so 14-12 at home.
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Twins at Astros projected starters
RHP Joe Ryan vs. RHP Brandon Bielak
Ryan (7-1, 2.21 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 0.95 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 61 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K, vs. the San Francisco Giants Wednesday
- 2 career starts vs. Houston: 1-1, 7.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 13 K in 10 IP; allowed 4 ER in each
Bielak (1-2, 3.55 ERA) makes his 5th start and 6th appearance. He has a 1.54 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 25 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday
- Has logged 9 IP at home this year and struck out 15 batters with a 3.00 ERA
Twins at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+140) | Astros +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Twins at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Twins 4
Moneyline
I’m not ready to buy into the Twins favored in Houston. Yes, they have played well against the defending champs, but 2B Jose Altuve just got back, and he’s raking at .355 in 8 games. Houston is about to hit its stride.
Ryan has been great thus far, but his worst start this season was against these same Astros. The extra-inning defeat on Monday should leave a sour taste for the ASTROS (+100) to capitalize on. The Twins are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings and 6-13 in the last 19 in Houston.
Run line/Against the spread
The Twins are 28-26 (14-12 on the road) on the RL, and the Astros are 27-26 (11-15 at home). Houston has the advantage in the bullpen with the 5th-best ERA at 3.18 as Minnesota sits in 9th with a 3.67 ERA. It’s a little chalkier than I like to go, but it offsets the even money ML in case an implosion happens again.
Take the ASTROS +1.5 (-165).
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Over/Under
Both teams are 4-6 O/U over the last 10. The Over is 3-2 between them over the last 5. The Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston. The Astros have scored at least 5 runs against the Twins in 8 the last 10 meetings. Ryan has allowed half of this total on his own in his 2 starts against them.
I’ll LEAN OVER 8 (-115).
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