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The Minnesota Twins (79-72) and Cincinnati Reds (79-73) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set at Great American Ball Park Tuesday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 1-0
The Twins dropped the series opener 7-3 Monday. They are 11-9 over the last 20 games and still hold a 7-game lead in the AL Central with 11 to go.
The Reds have won 6 of 8 and are tied with the Chicago Cubs for the final NL Wild Card spot. The Cubs hold the tiebreaker, though. Chicago is facing the Pittsburgh Pirates, which applies pressure to the Reds facing the 1st-place Twins. Cincinnati is 27-15 in interleague play.
Twins at Reds projected starters
RHP Kenta Maeda vs. RHP Fernando Cruz
Maeda (5-7, 4.50 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 96 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K Thursday against Chicago White Sox
- 4 career starts vs. Reds: 2-1, 5.06 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 24 K in 21 1/3 IP
Cruz (1-1, 4.05 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 54th appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 13.2 K/9 through 60 IP.
- Last appearance: 2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K on 17 pitches Saturday vs. New York Mets
- 2023 home/road splits: 1-1, 4.97 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 14.3 K/9 in 29 home IP; 0-0, 3.19 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 in 31 road IP
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Twins at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:27 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Reds +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+125) | Reds +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Twins at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 6, Reds 4
Moneyline
The Reds are at a decent value, but I don’t trust them in a bullpen game. Their ‘pen is 14th in baseball with a 3.90 ERA, and GABP is a bandbox. The Twins have scored 4 or more runs in 7 of 10 games, and I think Maeda will be just good enough to secure the victory.
Take the TWINS (-145).
Run line/Against the spread
The Twins are 40-36 on the RL on the road this season. They have only won 4 of the last 10 against the Reds over the last 5 years, but each of those wins were by 2 or more runs.
Go easy, but I’ll take the TWINS -1.5 (+125) or a HALF-UNIT.
Over/Under
The Over has cashed in 7 of 10 for the Twins, and the Reds are 5-4-1 O/U during the same stretch. The Over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings between the teams. The Over has cashed in Maeda’s last 5 starts.
That’s enough for me to believe. Take the OVER 9.5 (+100).
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