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The Boston Red Sox (76-77) welcome the Minnesota Twins (80-73) to Fenway Park Friday for the 1st game of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 2-1
The Red Sox lost to the Tampa bay Rays 2-0 Thursday, dropping their 2nd in the 3-game series. Boston, which is 3rd in the AL East, has lost 5 of its last 7 games, all on the road where it has been better this season. The Red Sox are 35-40 at home and have won 4 of their last 6 at Fenway Park. They are 71-82 against the spread (ATS).
The Twins, who are 38-40 on the road this season, have dropped 3 of their last 4 games with all 3 of those losses coming by just 1 run. They lost 3-2 to the Cleveland Guardians Thursday. Minnesota has struggled to generate offense as of late and has scored 4 or fewer runs in 4 straight games. It is 38-40 on the road and 70-83 ATS.
Twins at Red Sox projected starters
RHP David Festa vs. RHP Richard Fitts
Festa (2-6, 5.07 ERA) makes his 12th start and 13th career appearance. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 55 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 9-2 home win over the Cincinnati Reds Sunday
- 2024 away stats: 2-2, 3.96 ERA (25 IP, 11 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 in 5 starts
- First tme facing Red Sox
Fitts (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 3rd career start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 3.4 K/9 in 10 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 5-4 road loss to the New York Yankees Friday
- 2024 home stats: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 0 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 3.2 K/9 in 1 start
- 2024 AAA (Worcester) stats: 9-5, 4.55 ERA (116 2/3 IP, 54 ER), 1.28 WHIP in 24 appearance (23 starts)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Twins at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Red Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+145) | Red Sox +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Twins at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Twins 3
Moneyline
BET RED SOX (-105).
The Twins have struggled over the last few weeks, but they have been even worse on the road against quality opponents. Minnesota has lost 6 of its last 7 road games and 8 of its last 10 on the road.
The Red Sox have won 2 of its last 3 games at home. While Fitts has limited experience, he has yet to give up an earned run and has been terrific in his 1st 2 starts. The Twins are 1-4 in Festa’s last 5 starts.
Take RED SOX (-105).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no great value here. The Twins are too risky as a run-line favorite, especially considering how they’ve played as of late, and the Red Sox are too expensive as a run-line underdog.
Avoid this play.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 9 (-115).
The Red Sox have gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games and have struggled to get on the board consistently, scoring just 7 runs over their last 4 games. Boston is 1-7-1 O/U in its last 9 outings.
The Twins are 1-2-1 O/U in their last 4 games and have scored 13 runs while allowing 13 runs in those. Minnesota is 1-6-2 O/U in Festa’s last 9 starts as well. Take UNDER 9 (-115).
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