The Minnesota Twins (11-7) and Boston Red Sox (9-10) meet for a Thursday matinee to cap off a 3-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is at 1:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Twins were undone 5-4 in Tuesday’s series opener and had lost 3 in a row before routing the Red Sox 10-4 Wednesday. Minnesota clubbed 2 doubles and 3 HRs in piling up its 3rd double-digit game in runs.
The Red Sox are 4-2 on a current homestand that opened with 4 games against the Los Angeles Angels. All 4 of those Boston wins have been by 1- or 2-run margins.
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Twins at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Kenta Maeda vs. RHP Tanner Houck
Maeda (0-2, 4.09 ERA) is lined up for his 3rd start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 11 IP.
- Figures to see a lot of lefty bats in the Boston lineup; has .604 career OPS vs. right-handed batters while lefties have tagged him for a .744 mark
- Left season debut early with arm fatigue and missed his most recent turn in the rotation (Saturday); will start on 9 days’ rest
Houck (2-0, 4.50 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start. He has registered a 1.36 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 14 IP.
- Has been getting a lot of ground balls (66.7%), but he’s been hurt by an 18.2% HR/fly balls rate
- Coming off a 4-walk game in April 14 vs. Los Angeles Angels
Twins at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:28 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Twins +105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Twins at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Twins 4
Moneyline
Maeda is a bit of a question mark coming off his arm issues. Over he’s career he’s held batters to a .673 OPS, But when starting on 6-plus days, that OPS has ballooned to .751.
Houck has been unlucky in getting so many ground balls, but having HR problems on some random flies. He draws a breeze likely protecting the short left-field distance in this turn.
Minnesota is a bit too far over its skis on both sides of the runs-runs allowed equation and is perhaps a bit fatigued from a week in New York and Boston.
BACK THE RED SOX (-125).
Run line/Against the spread
Boston is the lean with a run of insurance, but only at a better price floating in less juice. STEER CLEAR.
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Over/Under
There is some definite fade to the Minnesota pitching in this one. But the backs ends of both bullpens are well-rested, and a breeze protecting the Green Monster cuts into a slight Over lean.
PASS.
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