The Minnesota Twins (40-39) and Atlanta Braves (50-27) open up a 3-game set Monday at Truist Park. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting since Atlanta won 2 of 3 meetings in 2019
The Twins have won 4 of 5 games to break out of a funk they were in while going 1-5 over a 6-game stretch from June 15-20. They are just 9-11 over the last 20 games but still lead the Cleveland Guardians by 2 games in the AL Central.
The Braves are on fire and took 2 of 3 from the surging Cincinnati Reds over the weekend. Atlanta is 9-1 over its last 10 games and 17-3 over the last 20. The Braves have opened a 6-game lead in the NL East.
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Twins at Braves projected starters
RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Spencer Strider
Gray (4-1, 2.56 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and a 9.3 K/9 over 81 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K Wednesday against Boston Red Sox
- Last 5 starts vs. Braves: 0-2, 3.23 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 33 K in 30 2/3 IP
Strider (8-2, 3.93 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and an MLB-leading 14.5 K/9 across 84 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 6 IP Tuesday against Philadelphia Phillies
- Has struggled at home with a 4.62 ERA in 7 starts vs. a 3.35 ERA in 8 road starts
Twins at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-115) | Braves -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Twins at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Twins 3
Moneyline
Atlanta has scored at least 4 runs in each of its last 10 games and is averaging 7.9 runs per game. Even in the lone loss, the Braves scored 10 runs. The Twins can’t keep up with that, especially when Strider is mowing down everyone.
With that said, we can’t take a -210 ML. Head to the Win/Total section, and take BRAVES AND OVER 5.5 TOTAL RUNS (-105).
Run line/Against the spread
The Braves haven’t covered this spread in 3 straight games, but they had multi-run wins in 6 straight before that series. The Twins are scoring just 3.7 runs per game over the last 10 and will have trouble keeping up to Atlanta’s hot bats.
Take the BRAVES -1.5 (-105).
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Over/Under
The Braves are 7-3 O/U over their last 10 outings, and the Twins are 6-4. We’re counting on the Twins to score 3 runs, which they have done in 7 of their last 8 games. As long as this number stays at 8, I’m willing to take it. If it creeps up to 8.5, I’m out.
LEAN OVER 8 (-120).
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