[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Milwaukee Brewers (44-33) and San Diego Padres (41-40) wrap up a 4-game set at Petco Park Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 5-1
The Brewers lost 6-4 as -112 favorites in the 3rd game of the series Saturday as the Over (8.5) hit. Milwaukee is on a 3-game skid after winning 2 straight at the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rookie CF Jackson Merrill hit a 3-run HR in the 4th inning for the Padres, who cashed as +104 underdogs. C Kyle Higashioka and SS Ha-Seong Kim also homered, helping San Diego win its 4th straight game.
Brewers at Padres projected starters
RHP Tobias Myers vs. RHP Michael King
Myers (4-2, 3.26 ERA) makes his 10th start and 11th appearance. The rookie has a 1.13 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 47 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 6-3 victory at Angels Tuesday
- 2024 road stats: 3-2, 1.95 ERA (27 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 5 starts and 1 relief appearance
- Has never faced Padres before
King (5-4, 3.49 ERA) makes his 16th start and 17th appearance. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 87 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 4-3 loss at Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday
- 2024 home stats: 1-2, 4.17 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 13.3 K/9 in 7 starts
- 2024 vs. Brewers: 0-1, 1.17 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 2 H, 2 BB, 10 K in 1-0 road loss April 17
- Career vs. Brewers: 0-1, 1.42 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.71 WHIP, 13.5 K/9 in 2 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Brewers at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:24 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-185) | Padres -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Brewers at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 3, Brewers 2
Moneyline
Normally in this spot, I would lean toward the team looking to avoid the sweep. However, the PADRES (-135) have been too profitable against the Brewers this season to fade, especially with King on the mound.
The 29-year-old right-hander has given up a total of just 2 ER in 2 career starts against Milwaukee, and he would’ve won the April 17 meeting if the Padres had given him at least mediocre run support.
BET PADRES (-135).
Run line/Against the spread
Milwaukee +1.5 (-185) will likely hit, but it’s hard to beat MLB long term betting into 35-cent lines.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
Despite San Diego having the 4th-best Over record at home this season (23-17-1), runs may be hard to come by in this series finale due to the pitching matchup. King has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 5 consecutive starts, and Myers has allowed 1 or fewer in 3 straight.
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (+100).
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Corey Scott on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Fantasy baseball help from BaseballHQ.com:
Subscribe now to dominate the competition.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]