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The Milwaukee Brewers (44-31) take on the San Diego Padres (39-40) Friday in the 2nd game of a 4-game set at Petco Park at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 3-1
The Brewers made it interesting with 2 runs in the 9th to tie Thursday’s game, but they lost it on a walkoff 7-6. SS Willy Adames went 2-for-4 with his 13th homer and 2 RBIs. The Brew Crew is 6-4 over the last 10 games and 12-8 over the last 20.
Padres 2B Jake Cronenworth was the hero with a walkoff blast in the bottom of the 9th Thursday. But OF Fernando Tatis Jr. was the star. He went 4-for-5 with his 14th homer of the season as he looks to be back to his 2021 form. The Friars have won 2 straight after a 5-game losing streak.
Brewers at Padres projected starters
RHP Colin Rea vs. RHP Dylan Cease
Rea (6-2, 3.29 ERA) makes his 13th start and 15th appearance. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 through 76 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 5-4 home victory Sunday against Cincinnati Reds
- 1 career start vs. Padres: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 4-3 road victory in 10 innings April 13, 2023
Cease (6-6, 3.96 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 through 86 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 11-6 defeat Sunday at New York Mets
- 2 career starts vs. Brewers: 1-1, 2.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 14 K in 13 IP
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Brewers at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Padres -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-160) | Padres -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Brewers at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 5, Padres 4
Moneyline
Will the real Dylan Cease please stand up? If you throw out his magical 2022 season with a 2.20 ERA, he has ERAs of 5.79, 4.01, 3.91, 4.58, and 3.95 this season. His K-rate is still great, he has reduced his walks more than 1.0 per 9. He’s just getting victimized by the gopher ball. He has allowed 8 homers in his last 6 starts.
I like the BREWERS +130 here.
Run line/Against the spread
One prop really sticks out to me. Rea has 6, 4, 5, 5, 5, 2 and 5 K’s in his last 7 starts. He struck out 6 Padres in his only start against them.
Run to the app and take COLIN REA OVER 3.5 K’s (+115).
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Over/Under
The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the teams. It’s 3-1 this season. With Cease struggling to keep the ball in the yard, I’m taking the OVER 7.5 (-115).
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