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The Milwaukee Brewers (44-30) and San Diego Padres (38-40) open a 4-game set Thursday. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 2-1
Milwaukee has won back-to-back games after taking down the Los Angeles Angels 2-0 Wednesday and cashing as a -180 road favorite. SS Willy Adames and 1B Rhys Hoskins each had an RBI. RHP Freddy Peralta allowed just 3 hits and 2 walks with 8 K’s in 6 innings.
San Diego snapped a 5-game losing streak Wednesday with a 5-2 win over the Philadelphia Phillies as a +166 road underdog. C Kyle Higashioka led the way on offense with a bases-clearing triple in the 8th inning, while RHP Matt Waldron struck out 6 batters in 7 scoreless innings to pick up the win.
Brewers at Padres projected starters
RHP Bryse Wilson vs. RHP Adam Mazur
Wilson (4-3, 3.84 ERA) makes his 9th start and 18th appearance. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 63 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 3-1 home victory against Cincinnati Reds Saturday
- 2024 vs. Padres: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (3 2/3 IP), 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 1 start, a 1-0 home win April 17
- Career vs. Padres: 1-0, 4.26 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 in 2 starts and 2 relief appearances
Mazur (0-2, 7.82 ERA) makes his 4th start. The rookie has a 2.05 WHIP, 9.2 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 in 12 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 6 BB, 4 K in 5-1 defeat at New York Mets Saturday
- 2024 home stats: 0-1, 24.00 ERA (3 IP, 8 ER), 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 1 start, a 9-3 loss vs. Arizona Diamondbacks June 9
- Has never faced Brewers before
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Brewers at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:19 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Padres -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+155) | Padres +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Brewers at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Padres 3
Moneyline
BET BREWERS (-105).
Milwaukee has won 4 of its last 5 games and scored 5 or more runs in 4 of its last 7. It has allowed 3 or fewer runs in back-to-back games and 5 of its last 9. The Brewers will open the series with a win against Mazur, who has struggled mightily in the majors.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There is minimal value on the run line in this matchup.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).
The Brewers have failed to hit the Over in 8 of their last 10 games, including each of their last 5. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 5 games while allowing 4 or fewer in 4 straight.
San Diego has hit the Under in 6 of its last 10 games, including 2 straight. It has scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of its last 6 games while allowing 4 or fewer in 6 of its last 9.
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