The Milwaukee Brewers (9-4) and San Diego Padres (7-7) continue a 4-game series Friday. First pitch at Petco Park is at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Milwaukee leads 1-0
The Brewers took Thursday’s series opener 4-3 in 10 innings. Milwaukee is 2-2 on its first road trip of the series, a 10-gamer that started with a 2-1 series loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks over the weekend.
The Padres have lost 2 games in a row and 3 of their last 4. San Diego banged out a .775 OPS in its first 10 games but has slashed a mere .181/.283/.299 (.582 OPS) across those 4 games.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Brewers at Padres projected starters
LHP Eric Lauer vs. RHP Michael Wacha
Lauer (1-1, 7.71 ERA) is tabbed for his 3rd start of the 2023 season. He has a 1.82 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 9 1/3 IP.
- Current San Diego batters own an aggregate .858 OPS against him
- Logged a 3.69 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 158 2/3 IP last season but posted a 4.76 ERA over 81 1/3 IP on the road
- Allowing 22 runs in 11 2/3 IP in spring training
Wacha (2-0, 3.00 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 12 IP.
- Has run hot and cold through his first 2 starts, allowing 6 runs in his debut on April 1 and 0 R last time out on Saturday
- Owns a 4.04 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across 227 career games
Brewers at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Brewers +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-145) | Padres -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a Draft Prep or full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 4/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!
Brewers at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Brewers 4
Moneyline
A San Diego bounce-back seems likely, but getting value on the Padres at this price appears very unlikely. PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The Over is a likable play here. The Padres figure as the most appealing side, but even there it is only palatable as a partial-unit play if the return goes up to +125. PASS.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Over/Under
It will be a cool night in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. However, an outward breeze is expected and both starters are fly-ball pitchers. Lauer and Wacha have benefitted from favorable batting-average-on-balls-in-play (BABIP) figures over the last 2 seasons (2022-23). Put the Milwaukee bullpen (.244 BABIP) in that same bin through the first couple of weeks of this season.
The Milwaukee offense is about league average. A scuffling San Diego attack (4.26 runs per game, 23rd MLB) is on its best side against left-handers, and the Friars have good numbers against Lauer. The Padres have been hamstrung by a .200 batting average with runners in scoring position. That figure comes alongside an unlucky .200 BABIP.
The back ends of the bullpens are not in shape.
BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-115).
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]