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The Milwaukee Brewers (15-8) and Pittsburgh Pirates (13-12) meet for the finale of a 4-game series on Thursday. First pitch from PNC Park is slated for 12:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pirates lead 2-1
Milwaukee lost the 1st two games of this series (4-2 and 2-1) and then rebounded with a 3-2 triumph Wednesday. The Brewers are 5-2 across their last 7 games despite scoring 3 runs or less 6 times.
The Pirate offense has a similar stretch going: Pittsburgh has scored 2 runs or less in 7 of its last 8 games.
Brewers at Pirates projected starters
RHP Freddy Peralta vs. RHP Mitch Keller
Peralta (2-0, 1.90 ERA) is lined up for his 5th start. He has registered a 0.76 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 in 23 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 2-1 win at St. Louis Cardinals Friday
- Career vs. Pirates: 2-1, 3.18 ERA (73 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 52 H, 24 BB, 86 K
- Owns a 3.75 ERA across 150 career games
Keller (2-2, 4.80 ERA) is tabbed for his 6th start. He owns a 1.47 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 30 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 4-2 loss vs. Boston Red Sox Saturday
- Career vs. Brewers: 0-4, 6.23 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 36 H, 11 BB, 33 K
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Brewers at Pirates odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:01 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Brewers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Pirates +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+138) | Pirates +1.5 (-166)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Brewers at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 5, Brewers 4
Moneyline
PITTSBURGH (+102) is 5-2 across the last 7 series meetings.
Surface ERA numbers on both sides starters and bullpens diverge from expected figures in opposite ways, pointing to some value on the Pittsburgh side. And the career Peralta numbers against the Pirates are deceiving: per ESPN, current Pittsburgh bats own an aggregate .878 OPS against the veteran righty.
Keller owns a PNC ERA of 3.78 since 2022.
Peg the Pirates as a solid value in this matinee series finale. BACK THE PIRATES (+102).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: Better value on the ML.
Over/Under
The Over has been a lean all week but has so far gone 0-3. The Over 7 (-112) is just a slight lean in this one: the strongest play is the Pittsburgh ML side.
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