The Milwaukee Brewers (17-11) and Philadelphia Phillies (13-15) open a four-game Citizens Bank Park series Monday at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Adrian Houser is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. Through 5 starts, Houser is 2-2 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 24 2/3 IP. He’s a fastball and ground-ball pitcher; the Phillies have struggled against both.
RHP Vince Velasquez is the projected starter for the Phillies. He is 0-0 with a 6.57 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, 13.1 K/9 and 8.0 BB/9 in 12 1/3 IP over 2 starts and 3 relief stints. Velasquez has been undone by 4 home runs; he has allowed 2 in each of his last two starts. In just 22 plate appearances, current Milwaukee bats have 2 HR (and a 1.591 OPS) against him.
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Brewers at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Phillies 5, Brewers 4,
Money line (ML)
Milwaukee has played well on the road (9-3), and it was a road trip to San Diego and Chicago that jumpstarted a stretch that has seen the Brewers go 9-4 since April 19. It has mostly been Milwaukee pitching coming through over that time; the Brewers have averaged 3.6 runs per game since that same April date.
Over that same span, the Phillies have gone 5-8. They enter this series having lost three of their last four games. Pitching has been an issue of late: Philadelphia owns a 5.28 ERA since April 20.
But Milwaukee’s 4.0 RPG and 4.1 RPG allowed don’t match with a team seven games over .500. The Brewers have gone 5-2 in one-run games, and that has helped. They are much better against lefty pitching, and while they do have the better starter going, Philly likely has the better bullpen (despite some recent surface ERA inflation).
TAKE THE PHIILIES -115.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Phillies have tended to play in a lot of one-run tilts. They are 6-6 in such games. But the price here offers no value. PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
Citizens is a hitter’s ballpark, and the Monday weather calls for a breeze out to left field. Still, the Philly bullpen is likely being overlooked on the Philadelphia-runs-allowed side of the ledger. An Over 8 (-110) tag would make for some value, but that line doesn’t seem likely. PASS, but keep an eye on the line.
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