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The Miami Marlins (79-74) welcome the Milwaukee Brewers (87-66) to loanDepot park Friday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 3-1.
The Marlins lost 2 of 3 to the New York Mets from Monday-Wednesday, including an 8-3 defeat as -118 favorites in the series finale Wednesday. Miami is tied for the final NL Wild Card and is 44-34 at home this season.
Milwaukee enters on a 3-game win streak after taking 3 of 4 games against the St. Louis Cardinals to start the week, winning 6-0 Thursday as a -103 underdog. The Brewers are 42-36 on the road this season, 7-3 over their last 10 games and hold an 8-game lead over the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central.
Brewers at Marlins projected starters
RHP Corbin Burnes vs. TBD
Burnes (9-8, 3.56 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 184 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 9-5 home win vs. Washington Nationals Saturday
- 2023 road splits: 5-5, 2.90 ERA (108 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 10 HR in 17 starts
The Marlins were still undecided on a starter for Friday at the time of publishing.
Brewers at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:32 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Marlins +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+125) | Marlins +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Brewers at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 5, Marlins 2
Moneyline
LEAN BREWERS (-140).
The Brewers have won 3 games in a row and are 4-3 over Burnes’ last 7 starts. Milwaukee has performed well this season following a win, going 47-39. Miami has been streaky this season and it is just 36-37 off a loss.
Milwaukee is 48-32 as a favorite and this line is appealing. The Marlins may also play a bullpen game and rank 17th in reliever ERA, so they may not have success on the mound.
Run line/Against the spread
SPRINKLE BREWERS -1.5 (+125).
The Brewers have won 5 of their last 7 games by 2 or more runs, and they have won 3 in a row by at least 4 runs. They covered 3 of 4 games against the Marlins at home from Sept. 11-14.
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-105).
The game has gone Under in 3 of Burnes’ last 4 starts. He has been much better on the road as well with just a 2.90 ERA.
Milwaukee is 68-79-5 O/U this season and has gone Under in 3 of its last 4. Miami is 71-77-4 O/U and is 4-4 O/U in its last 8 games.
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