The Cincinnati Reds (26-30) welcome the Milwaukee Brewers (29-27) to Great American Ball Park Friday. First pitch is set for 5:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Milwaukee took 13 of 19 meetings in 2022
The Brewers lost 3-1 Thursday at the Toronto Blue Jays and have dropped 5 of their last 7 games. Milwaukee is just 13-15 on the road this season and has lost 6 of its last 10 games but is still 1st in the NL Central, 1/2 game ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Reds had a 5-game win streak snapped in an 8-2 loss at the Boston Red Sox Thursday. Cincinnati is 7-3 over its last 10 games and is 14-14 at home, trailing Milwaukee by just 3 games in the NL Central.
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Brewers at Reds projected starters
RHP Corbin Burnes vs. LHP Brandon Williamson
Burnes (4-4, 3.68 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 63 2/3 IP.
- One of his best starts of the season last time out: 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 8 K vs. San Francisco Giants Saturday
- Has been an All-Star the last 2 seasons but Milwaukee is just 5-6 this season in his starts
Williamson (0-0, 5.02 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 5.7 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 14 1/3 IP.
- Made his major league debut on May 16 and has allowed just 12 hits through the 14 1/3 innings over his first 3 starts
- Cincinnati is 3-0 when he takes the bump
Brewers at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:28 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Reds +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (-110) | Reds +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Brewers at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 5, Reds 4
Moneyline
PASS.
The Brewers (-175) have a strong starting pitcher in Burnes, but they have struggled as of late.
Milwaukee is too expensive to play outright, but Cincinnati’s run line with insurance is priced appropriately and is the safer play Friday.
Run line/Against the spread
BET REDS +1.5 (-110).
The Reds have been a strong play on the run line this season. Cincinnati is 5th in baseball at 33-23 ATS, is 21-17 ATS as an underdog and is 11-9 ATS as a home underdog.
Milwaukee is just 11-17 on the run line as a favorite. The signs point to Cincinnati being the better side here.
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 10 (-115).
The Reds have been a good Over play this season, but Burnes will pose quite the challenge. The Brewers are just 24-30-2 O/U this season. They have gone Under in 6 of their last 9 contests and pushed the total in one of the 3 that didn’t go Under.
The Brewers only scored 7 in their 3-game series against the Blue Jays to start the week, so their bats aren’t hot right now. Couple Burnes and a weak Milwaukee attack, and take the UNDER 10 (-115).
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