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The Milwaukee Brewers (8-3) and Cincinnati Reds (6-6) wrap up a 4-game series at Great American Ball Park Thursday. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 2-1
After a rain delay for about an hour and a half, the Brewers came out hot and won 7-2 Thursday. They have won 2 straight and scored at least 8 runs in all 3 games against Cincinnati. Milwaukee is 5-1 straight up on the road and 7-4 against the spread (ATS) on the season. It has won 3 of its last 4.
The Reds kicked the series off with a thrilling 10-8 win Monday but have struggled to limit Milwaukee since. They have lost 3 of their last 4 and 4 of their last 6. Cincinnati is 5-7 ATS on the season. The Reds are 4-5 straight up at home.
Brewers at Reds projected starters
RHP Freddy Peralta vs. RHP Nick Martinez
Peralta (1-0, 3.09 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 0.60 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 in 11 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 6-5 home win vs. Seattle Mariners Friday
- 2023 road splits: 5-6, 4.34 ERA (76 2/3 IP, 37 ER), 72 H, 29 BB, 83 K in 14 starts
Martinez (0-0, 7.20 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 10 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 9-6 home win vs. New York Mets Saturday
- 2023 home splits: 3-1, 2.60 ERA (62 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 53 H, 19 BB, 41 K in 4 starts and 29 relief appearances with San Diego Padres
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Brewers at Reds odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers -126 (bet $126 to win $100) | Reds +108 (bet $100 to win $108)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+126) | Reds +1.5 (-152)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)
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Brewers at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 6, Reds 3
Moneyline
BET BREWERS (-126).
Milwaukee has historically been a tough team for Cincinnati, winning 10 of 13 games last season against a solid Reds roster. The Brewers have continued to dominate, scoring at least 7 runs in all 3 games. They have scored at least 6 in 5 of their last 6.
Milwaukee is 2-0 in games which Peralta has started as well. After winning 4 of their 1st 6, the Reds have lost 4 of their last 6 and have allowed at least 5 runs in both games that Martinez has started. Cincinnati is struggling, while Milwaukee is surging.
Back BREWERS (-126).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The spread for the red-hot Brewers does have some value, but at these odds, the moneyline is the better the play.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 8.5 (-122).
Both teams have hit the Over consistently this season. The Reds are 9-3 O/U and have gone Over in 4 of their last 5 games, scoring at least 5 runs in 3 of those and allowing at least 6 in 4.
The Brewers have gone Over in 4 straight and in 6 of their last 7, allowing at least 5 in 4 of their last 6. The Reds are 2-0 O/U in games Martinez has started, while the Brewers are 1-1 in games Peralta has started.
Considering those trends, back OVER 8.5 (-122).
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