Arkansas is a better team than Mississippi State.
On paper.
But right now, the Bulldogs are the favorites in Saturday’s Week 6 matchup from Starkville. Mississippi State is 4-1 following Saturday’s victory over Texas A&M, knocking the Aggies from the Top 25 and placing the Bulldogs in it. Texas A&M had beaten Arkansas the week before.
Arkansas coach Sam Pittman hasn’t lost to Mississippi State coach Mike Leach. Even in the Razorbacks’ three-win season in Pittman’s first year at the helm in 2020, Arkansas handled the Bulldogs in StarkVegas, 21-14.
But Mississippi State has only scored fewer than 14 points twice since that loss. Once to Alabama and once in the bowl game last year against Texas Tech.
Arkansas, meanwhile, is searching for an identity following two straight losses. Under normal circumstances, losing to Texas A&M and Alabama in consecutive weeks wouldn’t be cause for concern. But consider the Hogs had cracked the Top 10 after a 3-0 start, A&M’s disappointing loss to Appalachian State and Alabama’s demolition on Saturday, things are tense in Fayetteville. Pittman, for example, declined to specify what kind of injury quarterback KJ Jefferson had, only that the Mississippi native had “symptoms.”
On the other side of the ball, MSU has the nation’s No. 7 pass offense, averaging 347 yards per game. Arkansas’ pass defense is 124th in FBS out of 131 teams, giving up 289 a game.